Wednesday, January 7, 2009

A War with a Clear Purpose

As we so sorely noticed a couple of years ago, Lebanon War II (Olmert's Folly) was a war without a clear plan or a clear purpose. The expulsion required the squandering of military resources on the expulsion of Jews from Gush Katif, Northern Gaza and Northern Shomron. It also necessitated the criminal misuse of political, military and judicial authority as well as the use of the brainwashing talent of the cleverest of the psychologists and the media. A prime minister, a defense minister and a military chief of staff were totally out of their depth to prosecute that war and clueless about what they were trying to do.
The picture is somewhat different now. Barak instead of Peretz is the Defense Minister and Ashkenazi instead of that air force UFO is the chief of staff. The IDF is in a better state of preparedness, and it shows.
BUT ... we know that the IDF is the Israel Defence Force and not the Israel Victory Force. At their best they will fight with exceptional competence until the UN ref blows his whistle. The other day I came to the conclusion that the architect of this war Defense Minister Ehud Barak (alias Barach = run away) of the Labor Party has a clear goal: to be Defense Minister in the next government whether it is headed by Netanyahu and Likud or Livni and Kadima.
But just as I started to form those words, I encountered the words of a man who, though not a prophet, has shown himself to be a pretty fair analyst and predictor of what is going on around here, Moshe Feiglin. Listen to him in English here:
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Radio/Player.htm#2#323 .
He went further than I did and said that Barak is going to be the next Prime Minister. This war is shooting Labor up in the polls. If Labor pulls ahead of Likud and Kadima, Barak will be asked by President Peres (Hebrew for vulture) to form the next government. In any case that means that the Jewish Home (former NRP) and the National Union joined with Marzel and Rabbi Wolpe will both be persona non grata in coalition negotiations. Probably Avigdor Lieberman's Israel Our Home will be the same. Shas will presumably be in the government. The concessions will continue.
Feiglin didn't say the following. I say it. The chances of getting a real right-wing government for an independent Israel are pretty close to nil. The chance of avoiding serious damage rest on getting as many seats for the Likud as possible. If Feiglin is in the Knesset and the Likud forms the government with 36 seats or better, we have a fighting chance. The Americans will press Bibi hard and the people and Feiglin and friends will press back harder from the other side. When Bibi caves in and supports the PLO against Hamas, ignoring the total irrelevance of the difference between two groups of terrorists, Feiglin will look good. Next time Feiglin runs against Bibi for the leadership of the Likud, he will do better. Feiglin is smart with media and does not let his image peak. People will soon see Bibi as an old face.
There is, however, a motion to the Supreme Court by Meretz to have Feiglin struck off from the list of the Likud completely for being racist! That is unprecedented, but if it happens, ballots are over and bullets begin. Meanwhile, let's do the only intelligent thing we can with our ballots and get out there and vote. Let us put clothespins on our noses and vote LIKUD!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

holy shmoly u are the very first person who sees ahead must say like me

this war is a political anecdote both for the palestiniean politics as well as israeli

keep writing ure 3 steps ahead most boring conversations!!

keep writing about jewish leadership and how that leadership should manifest be well u are good!!

amazing!