Bibi's Newest Government-- Can it Last?

I guess that the whole world is asking that question, and here in Israel, that'll be the theme of many newscasts and editorials until the government implodes. Israel doesn't have a betting country like England where lots of money was made and lost betting on the sex of Will and Kate's second child and the names of that child. Once Princess Charlotte Elizabeth Diana's name was revealed the big bets were on today's British Elections.

Binyamin Netanyahu

Miriam Alster/Flash 90

I wonder if those betting places are also taking bets on how long Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's coalition will last. All I can say is that I wouldn't buy tickets to travel abroad too far in advance, or I may miss voting, since we don't have absentee voting here in Israel. Two of my recent trips trips were timed to allow me to vote. Two and a half years ago I left just after voting, and this past visit I arrived home the day before elections.

Ironically, the last/final coalition agreement signed was with Bayit Yehudi's (Jewish Home) Naftali Bennett, who in both his Knesset campaigns stressed his aim to be part of Netanyahu's government. It seems that is the way Netanyahu works. He first makes the most difficult of the potential partners sign. And lastly he signs with his most natural allies. Finally he divides whatever is left with his own Likud Party. In his previous coalition he started by pulling a shocker and signing up Likud-traitor Tsipi Livni as Justice Minister. That brought in her personal loyalists, but she ended up being the one to destroy his government from within.

This time, Bibi, again went for a former Likudnik with high ambitions, Moshe Kahlon, first and created an offer Kahlon couldn't resist. I wonder if Kahlon will pull a Livni... IMHO, the two parties that Netanyahu can rely on for loyalty are the chareidim and Bennett's. Chareidim won't sit with Yair Lapid, and the feeling is mutual. Last time he allowed Bennett to force him into accepting Lapid and persecuting the chareidim. That was a dual mistake for both Bibi and Bennett. Lapid worked in tandem with Livni, learning how to get away with disloyalty, until Bibi finally disbanded the coalition and declared new elections.

Another time bomb in this coalition is Aryeh Deri's Shas, which already has a track-record of disloyalty. Ex-con Deri was davka given Finance, which I blogged about before. It really turns my stomach.

Here's how it stands now:

• Jewish Home: Chairman Naftali Bennett will be appointed Education Minister, while MKs Uri Ariel and Ayelet Shaked will be named Agricultural Minister and Justice Minister, respectively. Ariel will also control the Settlement Division and hold responsibility for implementing a program regulating Bedouins in the Negev. In addition, the party will choose a candidate for deputy defense minister.
• Kulanu: Party chairman Moshe Kahlon will serve as Finance Minister as well as chairman of the Housing Cabinet. MK Yoav Galant will beappointed Housing Minister, while a third person, apparently Kahlon associate Avi Gabbay, will be appointed Environment Minister. 
• Shas: Chairman Aryeh Deri will serve as Economy Minister, Negev and Galilee Development Minister, and possibly also Religious Affairs Minister, although this post may be given to another member of the party. In addition, Deri will appoint MK Yitzhak Cohen to head the Planning Administration within the Finance Ministry. Under Shas' agreement with Likud, which is subject to certain changes, Cohen may end up taking the post of Deputy Finance Minister. 
• United Torah Judaism: MK Yaakov Litzman will serve as Deputy Health Minister, while MK Moshe Gafni will chair the Knesset's Finance Committee. (Arutz 7)

There's still plenty left for the Likud to fight over, but many fear that Bibi will pull a fast one and accede to President Ruby Rivlin's pressure and establish a "unity government" which give the plums to Herzog and leave pretty much nothing of value to the Likud.

Nu, what do you think? Are you betting?

Bibi's All Time Worst Coalition

Only Israel's first Prime Minister, David Ben-Gurion crafted more Government Coalitions than Binyamin Netanyahu, but take into account that the country was young and terribly unstable at that time. I checked the complete list of Israeli PM's in Wikipedia. Besides Ben-Gurion, nobody comes close to Netanyahu, who is about to enter his fourth term as Prime Minister of Israel, or am I missing one.

You'd think he'd be better at it with so much experience, but he isn't. This incoming government has brought him to an all time low. Left, Right and Center, I doubt if anyone other than fanatic Deri-Shasniks could be pleased or neutral about having Arie Deri in charge of the Treasury.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signed a coalition agreement with Shas on Monday night, giving the ultra-Orthodox party control of the economy and religious affairs ministries and moving one step closer to building a government. (Times of Israel)

How could anyone forget or ignore the fact that Deri served time for corruption?

After Deri was convicted of taking $155,000 in bribes while serving as Interior Minister and given a three-year jail sentence in 2000, he was replaced by Eli Yishai.^[1][2] Due to good behavior, Deri was released from Maasiyahu Prison in 2002 after serving 22 months.^[3]Despite the corruption scandal and legal troubles, he remains very popular with the religiously traditional and Mizrahi Haredi public. (Wikipedia)

Having the cat guard the cream is not a good idea and certainly doesn't teach the Israeli public that "crime doesn't pay."

There isn't all that much in ministries left over for Naftali Bennett's Jewish Home party and even less for Bibi's own Likud. But that is what frequently happens when the Likud forms a government. All the important positions are given out to bribe encourage other parties to join or to make the government Center rather than Right. Menachem Begin established that template in 1977 when he shocked everyone by bringing in Leftist Moshe Dayan.

And about Avigdor Lieberman's ripping up his agreement with Bibi? I'm not surprised. Lieberman has officially opened the next Knesset Elections campaign.

Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman predicted on Monday night that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s new coalition will be short-lived.
Speaking to Channel 2 News’ late night edition, hours after he dropped a bombshell and announced he would not join the coalition, Liberman predicted that there would be new elections in Israel by 2016, if not later this year. (Arutz 7)

Netanyahu will keep trying to sweeten the deals with his "partners" to postpone the next round of elections.

Israeli Elections, 2015, 5775, Chrareidi Women's Party Boycotted to Death

When I first heard that one of the "New Parties on the Block" to run in Israeli Knesset Elections is of Chareidi women, בזכותן Bizchutan, all I could think was "oxymoron." There's an inherent impossibility in the term.

Chareidi women who want to run for political office don't suit the full definition of "chareidi." It just can't happen. Chareidi is more than just a way of observing Judaism's mitzvot, commandments. It's accepting a certain life-style and customs. It's being part of a strict social inflexible structure, which may be a bit more liberal (with a small "L") at home within the confines of family, but in the public realm there's very little leeway.

I remember watching the press conference a few weeks ago with Arye Deri and Rav Ovadia's very accomplished daughter,  Adina Bar-Shalom, when she announced that although she had been offered all sorts of offers to be in safe spots on Knesset lists, she was sticking with Shas and making do with joining Yaffa Deri on a new "Women's Council."

Therefore, I'm not at all surprised that the public leadership of the women's chareidi party are beginning to feel the pressure of their society against them in offers they can't refuse.

"Be careful - the ones who become muktzeh here aren't hareidi women, it's you who will be muktzeh because the hareidi society will excommunicate you, because the hareidi society will not receive your sons, it won't accept shiduchim (arranged marriages - ed.)," he warned.
Halbertal continued "you will be muktzeh there in the hareidi society. On the personal level I say to you, think twice about what you're doing to your family and also the other hareidi women there, you will be excommunicated for generations. They will denunciate you all, and rightly so, from the hareidi community."
The threats echo similar threats of excommunication from the hareidi school systems made last month by United Torah Judaism party activists against hareidi women who campaigned to have female representation in the hareidi parties. (Arutz 7)

Their families must decide whether they really want the pressure and rejection, because if they do, then they aren't really chareidi, are they?

Israeli Election Update: PA Sanctions, Deri Threats, Likud Recounts, Never Dull

I have no doubt that the Israeli, read Likud campaign threats to the P.A. Palestinian Authority to withhold funding is related to the 2015 (5775) Knesset Elections. Two reasons:

• primary results leave few Right candidates, including sitting Knesset Members, in the cold
• two years ago, Israel did the same, and two years ago, there was also Knesset elections

Prime Minister Binyamin Bibi Netanyahu is too good and experienced a politician to decide on anything like that by "chance."

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As soon as there was talk of Arye Deri's possible resignation, there were predictions that it was just to pressure the Yosef clan and veteran Shas supporters for more support. These "resignations" aren't immediate, which gives time for drama for a showman like Deri.

Nothing is dull when Aryeh Deri is involved.

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And the Likud Primaries are riddled with numerical improbabilities: 

According to Channel 2, in Beit Jann, MK Tzachi Hanegbi received 250 votes — but only 197 Likud members had voted overall. Similarly, in Jerusalem, MK Yuli Edelstein received nearly a thousand votes more than the number of voters at the station.
Hanegbi dropped down three spots, from 9th to 12th, after the reevaluation.

Read more: Likud primary recount still leaves Hotovely in the cold | The Times of Israel http://www.timesofisrael.com/likud-primary-recount-leaves-hotovely-in-same-place/#ixzz3NvWQq7Dv  Follow us: @timesofisrael on Twitter | timesofisrael on Facebook

Even though MK Tzippi Hotobelli initiated the recount, she is still out of the "safe seats" predicted by the polls. Many of the more "nationalist" or Right members of Likud have been disappointed in her politics of late. That's why she got fewer votes. And also she had gotten in on the "coattails" of the Moshe Feiglin supporters. He did much worse, because his supporters are very much disenchanted with the Likud in general. They either left the Likud or didn't vote in the primaries.

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With over two months left before Knesset Elections, there's lots more to come. Stay tuned...