Hamas/Gaza War Musings #24: Time for Bibi to Distance Himself From Biden

In my previous War Musings,  USA vis-à-vis Israel, A Sadistic Abusive Relationship, I showed that the USA-Israel relationship is typical of serious emotional abuse. Now for another reason Prime Minister Binyamin Bibi Netanyahu must seriously distance himself from Biden and the Democrat Party.

Polls are showing that Biden and the extreme Left Progressive ANTI-ISRAEL Democrats are losing support in the United States. Republicans, especially President Donald Trump, are losing all respect for Netanyahu. 

It's time for Netanyahu to assert himself, act like the leader of an independent country -which he had been elected to be- and wean himself from the Biden administration "cold turkey." 

Biden and the Democrats are losing support, especially by those Americans who think and care about the State of Israel. Jews, who for generations, had been loyal Democrat voters, like Alan Dershowitz, now are traumatized as they realize that their party is supporting the anti-Israel and antisemitic university demonstrations. 

Bibi claims to be a wily, wise politician, but he's just acting like a pathetic victim of abuse. It's time to repair and expand Israel's relations with the Republican Party and Donald Trump. He shouldn't consider it "election interference" especially after Biden agreed with Schumer that Israel must vote Bibi out of office. 

I'm disgusted and embarrassed by Bibi Netanyahu's pathetic behavior.

Bibi, If You Can't Take the Heat, Get Out of the Kitchen!!.

Bennett-Bibi Parallels to Kings David and Saul

Tonight on tv, Israel's Chanel 11, I watched מהצד השני Mehatzad Hasheini "On The Other Hand" with Guy Zohar.

Guy Zohar picks a few issues each program and gives his own spin. Tonight he talked about something he thought peculiar. Naftali Bennett, head of the Yamin Hachadash (New Right) Party, a name I really don't like, though their platform is good, refuses to say that he's campaigning for the position of Prime Minister of the State of Israel. Of course, it's clear that he is, and he is doing very well in the polls under the question "Who should be the Prime Minister of the State of Israel?" For the longest time number two after PM Binyamin Bibi Netanyahu was "none of the above," and now Bennett is well ahead of all competitors and closing in on Netanyahu. His biggest problem is that we don't vote for Prime Minister, we only vote for party Knesset lists, and the party that does the best gets first crack at trying to form a coalition which will be headed by its number one.

Zohar showed clips, almost ad nauseum of New Right's Ayelet Shaked and Matan Kahane saying that Bennett is best suited to be Israel's next Prime Minister. He seemed to find that rather strange. I guess that Guy Zohar isn't familiar with the Tanach, Bible. 

This Bennett-Bibi scenario as presented by Zohar immediately reminded me of King David while King Saul was still alive and ruling. No matter what King Saul did against David, which included trying to murder him, David held back his followers from harming King Saul. Even though Samuel the Prophet had already anointed him, David insisted that he would never harm the king. And Bennett keeps saying that no elections are happening right now, so Bennett is not campaigning against Netanyahu to replace him as Prime Minister.

As I've said many times, as rocky as the present coalition is, the two main components Likud and Blue and White are both terrified of elections, since their leaders know very well that they've lost popular support. That's the glue holding the Bibi-Gantz government together. The political party showing most improvement in the polls is Bennett's New Right.

This is very much a three way competition. Gantz has no real chance to form a ruling coalition on his own. Bibi's attacks on Bennett over the years, even though he did give him good positions in his last interim government, also parallels King Saul's treatment of David. Even when trying to kill David, King Saul would sometimes order him to come and calm him with sweet music.

David eventually became King of the Jewish People and Land. I wouldn't dare try to predict who will be the true successor to Bibi Netanyahu. It may take a few short terms by successors until a new strong leader takes the helm.

Bibi-Gantz Coalition, Political Trick?

When will Israel have new elections?

Odd couple for sure. There's no humor in the present Israeli coalition of Bibi-Gantz, Likud and Blue and White plus the chareidim and a few others. Gantz's political career was founded on and focused on declaring Bibi Binyamin Netanyahu unfit for office and replacing him. But then, after three failed attempts to legally unseat him as Prime Minister, Gantz folded and accepted a deal with Bibi. Bibi trapped him with a newly invented title "Alternate" Prime Minister with all the expensive trappings of the office without any authority or responsibilities. When Gantz and his cronies offer opinions aka "alternative" policies they're accused of "interfering."

In the meantime, polls are showing Gantz and his remaining Blue and White Party dropping, while his former political partner, Yair Lapid, is now holding second place, aka head of opposition.

Politics is a complicated profession. Each country has its very own system, requiring wannabes to learn a complicated lexicon of skills to really succeed. There's no competition between the skills and experience of the Likud MKs with Gantz and his cronies.

Could the downward spiral of Blue and White have been the aim of Binyamin Bibi Netanyahu's offer to Benny Gantz all along?

What do you think?

Is There a War in Northern Israel?

Yesterday, in a couple of surreal hours, there seemed to be a war going on in Northern Israel. All three channels we get from Israel were reporting it.

Then, this morning, except for the yapping of politicians, it's like nothing had ever happened. I'm confused.

Besides that, it's so hard to get excited about the upcoming elections. And the 2019 Redo Knesset Elections are very soon. Not that I take polls very seriously, but the trend seems to be another tie.

Nu, what do you think?

Knesset Elections 2019, 5779, Polls are Just Polls & Feiglin Kingmaker

This post isn't the one I told my facebook friends I'd write, but I think it's good pre-Shabbat food for thought message. Print it if you don't have time to read it now, or if you want to show it to others.

To be honest, I also check the polls and appreciate Jeremy's Knesset Insider, which just gives the basic numbers and attributes his findings. The polls indicate possible trends, though because an Israeli Prime Minister must negotiate a coalition, the more detailed the poll, the less accurately it may actually predict who will run the next government.

What I find absurd and inaccurate are those television news commentators, who excitedly read off various poll results as if they're giving us a real-time report of a Wimbledon final. A few hundred people willing to fill in an online form or answer a telephone caller isn't the same as the actual elections. Please, don't take it all so seriously.

For the first time, now in the 2019 Israeli Elections, there are quite a few political parties campaigning as Right. Not only hasn't this happened before, but former MK Michael Ben-Ari has davka been forbidden to run by the Central Elections Committee. Their excuse is that he's too Right. Center used to be the popular label. To be honest, I don't see most of the self-labeled Right parties as truly Right. They're mostly trying to cash in on the fact that Israelis are getting tired of the weak Center.

Bibi, Center
Bagel Hole

We have just a week and a half now before Knesset Elections 2019, 5779, and once the votes are counted enough to see which party got how many Knesset seats, if not before, Likud and Blue-White negotiators will be seriously courting and competing for the only unaffiliated supermarket party running, Feiglin's strangely named Zehut, Identity. That's a terribly ironic name for a party that has no real ideological identity.

Moshe Feiglin has gathered a diverse collection of MK wannabes, who don't have anything in common other than wanting to get elected to the Knesset. In terms of ideology, they cancel each other out. As a party, they can't be labeled truly Right or Left or even Center. Just call them Opportunist. They'll end up being offered "the moon" by both Likud and Blue-White. That's very dangerous for the State of Israel.

The State of Israel seems to be on the verge of war in  the South and political chaos, if my prediction about Feiglin is correct.

Let's pray.

Shabbat Shalom u'Mevorach

Have a Peaceful and Blessed Shabbat

Clever of Bibi to Schedule Maximum Time Before Elections

A reminder that here in Israel we don't vote for Prime Minister; we vote for a political party's Knesset list. And it's the party leader who can hammer together/negotiate a coalition who becomes Prime Minister. That's why more and more polls are stressing the "bloc total," Right versus Left. Considering that some Center parties wouldn't agree to be in a coalition with Extreme Left and/or Arab parties, that limits Leftist options. To fully understand Israeli Elections and Politics, one must have a good head for strategy and tactics, like in chess. Binyamin Bibi Netanyahu is a champion at this. I'm sure he has it all calculated in his mind; none of this (except the indictment threat, maybe,) is by chance. 

Week by week, Likud is doing better in the polls. Remember that polls are just polls, but consistent trends should be examined. To keep track of the possible results of the upcoming 2019 Israeli Knesset Elections, just trends of course, I suggest checking out Jeremy's Knesset Insider periodically, once a week would be enough.

Now, why am I not surprised that the Likud is doing better in the polls?

• Most people are rather conservative by nature. Life in Israel on the whole is better than ever, so why change leadership?
• The four-headed monster party led by Gantz, Lapid, Ashkenazi and Ya'alon has no real platform, other than knocking Bibi from office. And each of their four "leaders" has holes in his CV. None of them have any real governing experience. Besides that, there aren't any women sharing the top.
• Kahalon's ploy to be considered the Jabotinsky (Revisionist) inheritor/follower, and calling himself the wimpy* Right will just backfire. Likud supporters don't abide such Identity Theft.

Historically, the Likud has always done better in actual elections than in pre-election polls. There are just a few weeks left before the 2019 Israeli Elections. That's a long time in politics, especially here in Israel.

*anyone who is on the Right of the political spectrum finds "moderate" to be rather offensive and illogical adjective. Kahalon is calling himself the "moderate right."

Remember: Even The Best of Election Polls are Inaccurate

Here in Israel the political parties are revving up their campaign machinery for the 2019 Knesset Elections. Once all the primaries and committees (depending on the political party) submit their lists of Knesset candidates, then election fever will really heat up. Like in all democracies, genuine ones at least, polling companies and experts are big business. And the polls can have a very dangerous influence on voter/results.

Even the best of polls only take "samples" of a small percentage of the potential voters. In Israel, that means that just a few hundred are considered sufficient for predicting what the entire country is going to vote.

"Midgam conducted a poll of 503 people with a 4.4% margin of error for Channel 12 that was broadcast on Feb 9 2019." See Jeremy's Knesset Insider.

Now, we all know that if we sniff out the politics of  people living in different locations, we're going to get very different, contrasting, conflicting opinions. Because of the large range of political parties here in Israel, which do make it to the Knesset, even people who profess the same ideology/opinion about issues will vote for different political parties.

Frequently, people will preface their opinion with the phrase "Everybody says/thinks..." Honestly, I hate that word "everybody," since there is no such animal.

Too many times, people are influenced by the polls. Either the campaign workers are overconfident and don't work hard enough. Or people think it's "wise" to change their vote to a political party they think won't get enough votes to make it to the Knesset. Sometimes people hear that their party or "side" hasn't a chance, so they don't even bother voting.

Some people who answer polls, purposely announce they're voting for a party they'd never vote for. It's a big joke for them. In addition, there are those who don't fully make up their mind until they're actually voting, or change their mind at the very last minute.

We should vote carefully, according to which party, or candidate we honestly feel will do the best job. And then pray that Gd will not only give them wisdom, but they will use their Gd given Free Will to do what's truly best for the public good.

Benny Gantz's New Political Party Empty of Ideology

No surprise for you readers of my blog. I don't see Benny Gantz's new political party, Israel Resilience, as worth voting for. He's playing a familiar game of being the newest "tofu" or "chameleon" party with a few vague terms, which hint at no real ideology, other than getting elected.  these "center," or "trust me" parties are extremely common in Israel. Almost every Knesset election has one.

They are very popular with the voters, who for some strange reason, haven't yet caught on to the con. The leaders of these parties remind me of the imaginary politician I had envisioned when I wrote my highest graded composition for a university English class. The assignment was to write a parody of a campaign speech, and the line I remember best is:

"I want what you want."

I can imagine Benny Gantz saying it at campaign rallies and parlour meetings. It follows the principle that as long as you don't say anything negative, many people will like you. The polls give Gantz's parve* party a lot of votes, more than ten percent of the Israeli public.

Israelis like to give people a chance, since most have serious complaints about those they know. I've noticed this rather consistently even in our local Shiloh elections. A first time candidate usually gets a high percentage of the vote. The only time it doesn't happen is if there are a few first time candidates. Then the voters have a difficult choice deciding whom to vote for.

The only way to get an accurate idea of what Gantz or a similar party leader/figurehead stands for is to take a good look at the people on his/her list. What are their ideologies, experience etc? By examining them, you find out two things:

1. what is important to the main #1 candidate
2. who is backing him/her; politics is expensive; follow the money

The Israeli political system isn't like most others. Here we vote for party lists of Knesset candidates. Honestly, I think it works well in a country as tiny as Israel. The Prime Minister is the Knesset Member who can succeed in gathering a coalition of at least sixty-one 61 of the one hundred and twenty 120 Members of Knesset.

Yes, that's me voting a few years ago, at the 20th Knesset Elections.
Photo by Linda Fairman

*parve, according to the laws of kashrut, is a food that can be eaten with either milk or meat.

Israel Elections 2019, 5779 Latest Polls

Two interesting polls are out on Jeremy's Knesset Insider, both hot off the press, meaning that they include both the New Right of Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked and Labor running on its own, sans Tzipi Livni.

The shocker for many is that Bennett and Shaked are correct in their guess that they had brought most votes to the veteran NRP (National Religious Party,) now called Jewish Home. The polls show that without them, Jewish Home may not even get into the Knesset. The NRP is doing worse than Livni, which even has me shocked.  And I'm pretty sure that the polls were done before Caroline Glick publicly joined the New Right. She should bring votes from Likud and NRP.

I'm just going to copy/paste from Jeremy's Knesset Insider and let you take a good look. What do you think? Of, course, we still have a while to go before the actual elections, but so far it looks interesting. Honestly, I love this stuff.

PS Please remember that these are just polls; they aren't election results.

Kan Channel Poll: Likud 28, Israel Resilience 14, Yesh Atid 13, Joint List 12, HaYamin HeHadash 9

TNS conducted a poll of 543 people for the Kan Channel that was broadcast on Jan 2 2018.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [30] Likud
14 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz)
13 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [18] Labor
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [07] Shas
06 [05] Meretz
06 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
00 [06] Livni Party (close to the threshold)
00 [05] Bayit Yehudi (far from the threshold)
00 [–-] Telem (Yaalon), Zehut (Feiglin), Yachad (Eli Yishai), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited for Prime Minister?

40% Netanyahu, 30% Gantz, 30% Don’t know

Who is more suited for Prime Minister?

40% Netanyahu, 36% Don’t know, 24% Lapid

******

Channel 13 Poll: Likud 31, Israel Resilience 12, Joint List 12, Yesh Atid 10, Labor 8

Midgam conducted a poll for Channel 13 that was broadcast on Jan 2 2018.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [30] Likud
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz)
10 [11] Yesh Atid
08 [18] Labor
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [10] Kulanu
05 [07] Shas
05 [06] Livni Party
05 [05] Meretz
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
00 [–] (1.8% of vote) Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–-] (1.3% of vote) Telem (Yaalon)
00 [–] (1% of vote) Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv)
00 [–] (0.4% of vote) Zehut (Feiglin)
00 [–] Green Leaf and Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Scenario Poll: Gantz + Livni

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [30] Likud
15 [06] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Livni
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [11] Yesh Atid
08 [18] Labor
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [10] Kulanu
05 [07] Shas
05 [05] Meretz
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
00 [–] (1.8% of vote) Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–-] (1.3% of vote) Telem (Yaalon)
00 [–] (1% of vote) Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv)
00 [–] (0.4% of vote) Zehut (Feiglin)
00 [–] Green Leaf and Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

*Note: Scenario poll total is 119 seats, not 120.

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited for Prime Minister?

37% Don’t know, 35% Netanyahu, 28% Gantz

Who is more suited for Prime Minister?

55% Don’t know, 38% Netanyahu, 17% Lapid

The Knesset can be seen in the background. Remember that Israeli Elections are for Knesset seats, not for Prime Minister.

Just Wondering, How Accurate are The Polls?

Do the election polls really show what the 2019 results will be in Israeli Knesset Elections?

First of all, we don't yet know for sure which parties, new and old, will be vying for a share of those one hundred and twenty 120 seats. We must also take into account that the votes for parties that don't reach the minimum number are added to a "pot" of surplus votes which are then distributed among the winning parties by a very complicated formula. And the parties running still have to decide on their lists. Some of them use the democratic primary system, frequently with "reserved" spots given to wannabes chosen by the party leadership. Other parties are run like private "families." Some are run by committees, and the question is:

Who appointed the committee members?

With all this uncertainty, it's really hard to know today what will be in three and a half months' time. For the latest political election polls, I check on Jeremy's Knesset Insider. He keeps track, and in each post he also shows the right/left balance. Of course, this is just the "potential" and lots of guesswork, since there are political parties which shift right/left according to which way they think will bring them votes during election time and power in coalition negotiations.

Just to remind you that in Israel we vote for Knesset seats only. We do not vote for Prime Minister. Also, no political party gets a majority of the 120 seats, so that a potential prime minister must be a tremendously skilled and talented wheeler-dealer aka negotiator. This is the reality of Israeli government, political system.

Will Bibi's "center" policies win him another term as Prime Minister of the State of Israel?