Pre-Election Political Shenanigans

I was going to call this "Pre-Election Political Maneuverings," but that would put everything on a higher level.

Along with a large percentage of Israelis, I'm disgusted by our Prime Minister's fake "war" to stop the terror from Gaza which had burnt up a large portion of southern Israel and made life total Hell for Israeli citizens living there.

photo credit: חמ'ל הדרום Chamal Darom

• Instead of really fighting the terrorists to destroy them, Netanyahu went back to the farcical warnings to empty buildings technique. Nobody was fooled, not the terrorists and not any Israelis. What did we accomplish by bombing a few empty buildings? To be honest, absolutely nothing.
• Since we're months, barely a year, before scheduled elections, and elections could be called at any time,  Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman surprised nobody by resigning. That's so he can campaign from the Right of Bibi's Likud. 
• That left Bibi with the narrowest of coalitions, so of course Bennett and Kahlon are now competing for the Defense Ministry and threatening to topple the government.
• Deja vu, elections will no doubt be soon. 

Let's see who's really the best chess player.

Not A Fluke, LIkud/Bibi Support Stable

Contrary to media predictions, and the dreams of the Left, local and international, polls are showing that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's Likud party support hasn't dropped.

Maariv Poll: Likud 34, Yesh Atid 17, Joint List 12, Zionist Union 11

34 [30] Likud
17 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [24] Zionist Union
09 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [10] Kulanu
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Meretz
05 [07] Shas
05 [01] Orly Levy
00 [–-] Yachad, Yaalon, Zehut (as other) under threshold

69 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
51 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Yair Lapid's party is also polling very well, but the Labor Party, now called Zionist Union, is losing support, as is Kulanu.

Of course, things change once there are real elections, but we see a trend here if you look at the last two lines, which give possible coalition totals.

Also, this time, Netanyahu has held strong to his coalition, unlike the past few governments which didn't last very long. I can't remeber the last time a government/Knesset served a full term. Of course, one never knows what will be on tomorrow's news...

Are Bibi's Days Numbered?

Miriam Alster/Flash90)

There are people all over the world trying to push Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu out of office. Now, it's not that I'm a great fan of his --I have just too many complaints-- but like most Israelis, there just isn't an alternative, neither on the Right or Left of the Israeli political spectrum. And if there's one truism that applies for any politician running for a nation-leading spot in this world, it's that when in office his/her supporters will be very upset and disappointed. Very few, whether in the USA or Israel or anyplace else keeps important campaign promises, especially when it comes to Israeli issues.

Barely a year had passed between Netanyahu's two most recent elections, and lots of pundits and politicians, especially the wannabes, have been predicting that his razor-thin majority of just 61 wouldn't/couldn't last even as long as his previous government. Well, so far they're wrong.

The members of Bibi's coalition seem to be sufficiently afraid of elections to keep the coalition going. And many actually prefer Netanyahu as Prime Minister much more than they'd like to see Herzog of Labor aka National Union as PM. Jeremy's Knesset Insider describes the situation very well in his My Weekend Perspective: The Key to Defeating Netanyahu is Phase 2.

One of the reasons that Israeli political party leaders are afraid of elections is that for decades already, certainly since 1977, the polls frequently underpredict the popularity of the Likud. And that is why we've seen Likud led coalitions for most of close to forty years. Also, in recent years Netanyahu has proven himself to be a very capable and wily politician. Again, I don't like his policies. I'm past disappointment, because I have seen too much. I heard him say, during the short time that Ehud Barak was Prime Minister, that he thinks a Prime Minister should be a Centrist, so ideology plays second fiddle to that. And what he calls Center I call Left. That mix does give him a national popularity which can't be denied. Remember that I'm an uncompromising unabashed Right wing extremist compared to most Israelis.

The Israeli Left has nobody who can be considered a national leader. They are trying to promote Moshe Kahlon and maybe Gideon Sa'ar. About Sa'ar, I don't think he's "hungry" enough for the climb to top office, and I don't know if he really wants to risk his marriage for it. Basically his wife, TV news presenter Geula Even, would have to curtail her career if he was to return to active politics.

There's an irony in one of the complaints about Netanyahu, his age. Although he may be approaching Israeli retirement age, he's still younger than the top contenders for the American presidency, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump.

More Dangerous Stupidity from Bibi's Government!

Kahlon and Netanyahu

 Flash 90

Here's further proof that the latest Likud-Netanyahu is far from Right and even further from good for the State of Israel. Regardless of the difficulties, poverty, Arab terrorism the ordinary Israeli suffers, Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon has nothing better to spend his time on than trying to enrich the corrupt Arab pro-terrorist PA-Palestinian Authority.

Report: Israel formulating economic assistance plan for PA
Kahlon reportedly putting together a series of economic measures to help alleviate the pressure on the Palestinian population.

Is this some Purim joke? I don't think it's funny at all.

Money, or the lack of it, isn't the cause of the problems in the PA-Palestinian Authority. Their problem is their culture and corruption which are one and the same. No matter how much money they are given it won't be enough, because Abbas and his friends will pocket it all.

Kahlon, The Thorn-Kingmaker

Moshe Kahlon. photo credit:
MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST

Newly elected, or reelected after a period out of Knesset, Moshe Kahlon is setting himself up to be the "kingmaker." This does not surprise me at all.

Looking at the people who joined Kahalon for his run to the Knesset power in Israel I sensed Leftists, not Centrists and certainly not Rightists.

So, I'm not at all surprised that he's now playing very hard to get, cancelling a crucial meeting with Bibi's team, even after first telling President Ruby Rivlin that he recommends Netanyahu. His words at that time were that the thirty 30 MKs of Likud made it clear that the people want Likud. At no time did he actually say that he personally preferred to see Binyamin Netanyahu in another term as Prime Minister.

Kahlon's campaign focus and promises also had more in common with Lapid, Herzog-Livni and Meretz, not the Likud and not Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home.) Could there be a secret deal by those Leftists a la Oslo?

Simply put:

I don't trust him!

And as I've written before, I sure don't envy Binyamin Netanyahu!!

I Sure Don't Envy Bibi Netanyahu!

Even though the Israelis voters spoke pretty clearly and do prefer Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for another term of office, giving his Likud Party many more seats than they gave Herzog-Livni's, assembling a coalition won't be easy for him. Besides Naftali Bennett who has made it clear that he firmly supports Netanyahu and hasn't leaked any demands, all of the other party leaders are making it clear that they aren't in Bibi's pocket and expect a hefty payment, meaning important cabinet position for them and most of their MK's.

Just a couple of years ago, Netanyahu invited Avigdor Lieberman's party, Yisrael Beitenu to run with Likud on a joint list, which ended up to the benefit of Lieberman and detriment to Likud. This year, on its own, Yisrael Beitenu has lost strength, but it still has the power to make or break a coalition. Lieberman is playing hard to get, insisting that although he's leading one one of the smallest parties in Knesset, he still deserves a "senior position."

All during the campaign my feeling was that the Likud could not count on former Likudnik Kahlon at all in terms of joining the coalition. He'd be like the classic "woman scorned," even though he was the one who left the ship. And now the rumor is that he's going to play Bennett's old role dragging in Lapid as a "third and very unwanted wheel" as a condition for his joining a Likud government.

"According to Israeli television, Kahlon will demand that Netanyahu also invite his rival and erstwhile finance minister Yair Lapid into the government." (Jerusalem Post)

Yair Lapid's total lack of loyalty and discipline was one of the reasons Netanyahu had to declare new elections. And it was also Lapid's rabidly anti-Chareidi conditions that Bibi accepted which seriously damaged Likud's relationship with the Chareidi parties. And Netanyahu needs those MKs to form a coalition.

Nothing here is going to be easy. Voting and counting the votes are long over. The results are clear. The Israeli electorate does not want a Herzog-Livni government, not even just Herzog. It wants to give Binyamin Netanyahu another term of office, but the political leaders, MKs elected last week mostly have their own egos as priority, not the good of the country nor the will of the people.

As I've written before, I predict instability, and I wonder if Netanyahu will succeed in this seemingly impossible task. If he doesn't, then Herzog will get a chance to form a government coalition. And no matter who finally succeeds I doubt that the government will last very long. There is also a possible scenario that no coalition will be formed, and we'll be voting again this coming summer.

And don't forget that the media's rumor mill has been talking of President Ruby Rivlin pushing Netanyahu and Herzog to come up with a "National Unity Government," like the one that had Shimon Peres and Yitzchak Shamir trading places in the Prime Minister's office.

What do you think?

Israeli Elections, 2015, 5775, Movement Within Blocs, Predictions/Pundit #3

Again, I'd like to say that I'm enjoying the ease of checking Israeli Election, 2015, 5775, polls on Jeremy's site, which is most helpful for getting a good view of voter opinion trends with minimal opinion.

As I see it there are a couple of steady (taking into account the accepted margin of error, which is generally 3.5-5%) blocs of Israeli voters debating between two parties.

One of the interesting and predictable voting blocs in the upcoming Israeli Elections consists of those who had voted for Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid, which was the "vote for a newbie" success story two years ago. This is a very predictable Israeli election phenomenon which we see in almost every Israeli Knesset Election results. There's almost always a new vaguely "Center" party which gets a surprisingly high amount of votes, even though it's list is generally full of people without any real political experience. Two years ago Lapid won twenty 20 seats. Now, most of the polls are showing that those twenty seats are being split between his party and the newbie Koolaid, oops Koolanu headed by the disgruntled former Likud MK and minister, Moshe Kahlon. It's not quite clear what he really stands for other than returning to power, making him a suitable recipient for the fickle voters who had formerly voted for Lapid, at least two years ago.

Another bloc of voters is those who are debating between Likud and Bayit Yehudi. In pretty much all of the polls, their grand total makes up just under forty 40 seats. They are the Center Right of the Israeli political spectrum. What makes it hard to decide for many is that they, the voters, are more to the Right, though they know that their politicians are more Center and even Left in the Likud. Even if the election results give that bloc a total of forty 40 Knesset seats, they still need another twenty plus 20+ to form a coalition government. And that's where things get difficult.

Who can be Bibi's coalition partners?

Even though Yair Lapid's first government experience ended badly, remember that he and super-fickle opportunists Tsipi Livni were booted out of the government forcing Bibi to announce new elections, he's acting more diplomatic/political this time, carefully hedging his bets and refusing to refuse sitting with anyone. He has tasted power and the comfort of a "Volvo" including its government paid driver and wants another chance, not voicing an opinion about who should be Prime Minister.

Kahlon is another power wannabe. He wouldn't have started this campaign if his aim wasn't to return to the cabinet.

None of the polls so far gives those four parties a comfortable sixty-plus 60+ total.

The next post, bli neder, in this series will discuss the religious/chareidi parties and Avigdor Lieberman, and how they can fit in the next Likud government.

Yes, I think it will be a Likud led government yet again. There are two main reasons for that.

1. I don't think there are the potential numbers of predicted MKs willing to sit comfortably in a Herzog-Livni led Leftist government coalition. 
2. Neither Herzog nor Livni is politically skilled and capable of orchestrating and controlling a government coalition. 

Of course, this entire post should be prefaced with IMHO, In my humble opinion....

Israeli Elections, 2015, 5775, In With New and Out With Old

MK Binyamin Ben-Eliezer AP/Channel 2 News

MK Binyamin Ben-Eliezer of Labor has joined the list of veteran politicians who have decided to call it quits. He joins Limor Livnat and Gidon Sa'ar, both of Likud, who are off to make new careers for themselves. Considering Ben-Eliezer aka Fuad's bad health, he may just try to enjoy retirement.

These resignations open up opportunities for new faces, especially if the polls are correct. Both Labor and Likud are expected to get more seats in the upcoming elections.

The unabashedly Leftist Israeli media is hyping the "political marriage" of the lackluster Labor Party with Tsipi Livni's diminishing "Movement," trying to get the voting public to accept them as the ruling party. The media hopes that newcomer Moshe Kahlon's "Kulanu" will be sufficiently anti-Likud to join them in a coalition along with la-la Left Lapid and what remains of his "Yesh Atid."

Photo by Tomer Appelbaum

Kahlon, like Livni, was originally in the Likud. To be honest, I don't know much about him, but one thing for sure. His party will get a lot of votes, and afterwards most voters will be disappointed. That has happened to all the other well-hyped, newly invented Center parties that pop up like weeds for every Israeli Election. Do you remember the Pensioners, the Free Center, Raful's party, Kadima, Yesh Atid, etc?

We have a good few months until elections. There will be many more posts about it. In the meantime, it's almost Shabbat. Have a peaceful and restful one, G-d willing.

Likud in Opposition?

Polls are showing that there's a chance that the united Left Labor-Livni list could out-poll Likud in the upcoming 2015, 5775, Israeli Elections.

Poll: Joint Herzog-Livni list could outscore Likud

Combined Labor-Hatnua could win 23 seats, compared to 21 for Likud 21, but separately would dip below Netanyahu’s party

Read more: Poll: Joint Herzog-Livni list could outscore Likud | The Times of Israel http://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-joint-livni-herzog-list-could-beat-out-likud/#ixzz3LNPBlbjf Follow us: @timesofisrael on Twitter | timesofisrael on Facebook

Flash90

I have no doubt that the Likud will use that "threat" as campaign scare tactics against any other Center-Right or Right party running. The Likud has done that before, and considering that the largest/most popular public opinion is more Right than Left in Israel, it usually works.  And please don't forget that two elections ago, Livni's Kadima, yes, she seems to frequently flit from party to party as a true loyal and consistent political opportunist, got more MKs than Bibi Netanyahu's Likud, but she didn't succeed in putting together a coalition.

Does this scenario of a Leftist government frighten me?
Do I think that it would be bad to have the Likud in the Opposition?

As much as I oppose the loony Left Isaac (rather a disgrace to his late grandfather's name) Herzog's ideology, I can't imagine him doing any worse than Bibi's Center Left anti-hareidi government has done of late.

Actually, I think it would be a good lesson to Likud to spend some time in the Opposition. It should remind them and teach them that trying to straddle the Center of the political spectrum is not an honorable position.

Bibi hasn't done much for Jewish Rights and building in the Land of Israel, not even in Jerusalem. Like the person who faints at the sight of a needle and never gets vaccinated, he hasn't built homes for Jews, and he hasn't really approved many if any new large building projects. The minute American Government officials start complaining he clams up and freezes them, again. Yes, I say again, because many of these touted projects are the same ones he has been promising for years.

If it happens that Loony Left Labor-Livni-Herzog try to put together a coalition, I hope that NRP-Bennett stays away and joins Likud-Netanya on the vocal backbench. If they do that, there's a chance that the Left won't succeed in getting the required 61 MKs on-board. And that brings us to Lieberman and the possible Kahlon. Are they Right, Left, Center or Opportunist, willing to go with anyone who offers a seat and Volvo?

Searching for The RIGHT Political Party in Israel

Many, many Israeli citizens want a Right wing Prime Minister from a reliably Right wing pro-Jews in the Land of Israel political party.  We just have one problem. There isn't such a thing.

Present Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's polices are more Center-Left than Right. He's from the Likud, which has many Rightist supporters, members and even some politicians, but when they are in power they swing Left. Remember that Bibi is a supporter of a "Palestinian sic State." That takes him firmly out of the Right. And he runs a tight ship in Likud. The party platform and campaign speeches sound rather Right-Center, but his policies have been more to the Left than Right.

Netanyahu brought in rabid Leftists to his most recent coalition, allowing Livni and Lapid too much power. Considering that Lapid got in on NRP Bennett's coattails is most disturbing, because many people consider Naftali Bennett and his NRP aka Jewish Home Party to be strongly Right. It does have a high percentage of Right support, and it does have quite a few Right MKs at present. But then the big question that still troubles many is:

Why did Bennett make that pact with Lapid and then pressure Bibi to take them both into the cabinet?

It's important to remember that the NRP is traditionally a Centrist party and was always proud that whether the Israeli Government was Right, Left or Center, it (NRP) was happy to join the coalition and blend in like a pet chameleon.

Amir Levy/Flash 90

Apparently this upcoming election's "great white hope," Moshe Kahlon isn't all as Right as he's cracked up to be. Kahlon, like Bibi, will give away our Land.

"Former Likud minister Moshe Kahlon, who is forming his own party and will run for the next Knesset, said on Friday he would not rule out giving up territory for peace." (Arutz 7)

Stay tuned. We will have a hot winter here in Israel!