Elections Again? This isn't Some Sort of Joke; Is It?

I don't know why it has taken me so long to blog about the upcoming elections here in Israel. Usually I'm right on the ball, blogging about the politics even before the decision has been made. This time, eh...

Are we all burnt out between elections and COVID corona?

The twenty first century isn't all it was cracked up to be. It's becoming more of a dystopian horror movie, and we're in it whether we like it or not.

The score card is now under "construction" or something like that. MKs and wannabes are scurrying around trying to find the best chance to "live their dream" or extend their minute of fame.

There will be a deadline in another month or so, and by then deals will be made and dozens more polls will be publicized. Political parties may come and go, disappearing without even experiencing a single election on its own, sort of like a miscarriage. 

Veteran parties will join other historic relics in the political cemetery of has-beens. And Binyamin Bibi Netanyahu will attempt to keep on lengthening his record-breaking reign as Israel's longest standing/sitting/ruling Prime Minister.

While most Israelis are trying to stay alive and healthy and financially solvent, it seems that elections are the last thing we need again. But unfortunately, we haven't had a "proper" government for years, ever since Yvette (Avigdor) Lieberman broke up the coalition, if I remember correctly. 

Please BLAME IT ON YVETTE, NOT BIBI. Look, I don't vote Likud, but this whole mess is the fault of Yvette (Avigdor) Lieberman. And the main reason no party leader can put together a viable coalition is that Lieberman's Bayit Yehudi party doesn't join anyone. He's proving himself to be an anarchist, not a believer/follower in the democratic legal system of government.

Gd willing these elections will result in a better mix/choice of MKs who want the best for the State of Israel and not just an ego trip. A coalition must work together for the good of the country, Knesset Members not just the ministers.

Coalition Politics: How To Banish Avigdor Lieberman to The Sidelines

There are many dimensions to the political situation present in Israel right now. On one hand I agree with the various opinions of Arlene Kushner, Caroline Glick and Ruthie Blum.

But last night as I was falling asleep, I suddenly had the solution to the Avigdor Lieberman problem. He has evolved or devolved from a strong Right wing Likud activist politician to a dangerous political anarchist, who gets his kicks from breaking up government coalitions and driving most everyone crazy. Inexplicably he has enough followers to keep him in the Knesset with sufficient MKs to stymie every possible coalition. Avigdor Lieberman wants to be the kingmaker and Prime Minister. I've come up with a way to lock Lieberman out of the government.

It's pretty obvious, once you think about it. Of course it's based on a shaky double "if."

If both Gantz and Bibi really want to avoid another useless round of Knesset Elections...

If both Gantz and Bibi really are sick of Avigdor Lieberman's dangerous political games...

Likud's Binyamin Netanyahu and Blue & White's Benny Gantz do no need Avigdor Lieberman to form a broad coalition together. Both parties got over thirty 30 seats in the last elections. Together that's the majority needed to form a government. Both of them can say that:

"For the good of the State of Israel, we must have a strong government, a broad-based government of Right, Left, religious and secular. We welcome all parties, all MKs who want to work together for the betterment and security of the State of Israel into our coalition."

That's it. That's what most Israeli citizens really want.

Can someone please send them the message ASAP...

Israel's Right United, Right?

Israeli Politics is complicated

It seems that Shaked, Bennett, Peretz and Smotrich have done their pragmatic best to unite their political parties for the upcoming elections. And I'm even happier to see that Moshe Feiglin isn't part of the bloq.

I have no doubt that this hasn't been easy. The NRP is now headed by a political newbie who doesn't seem to have a clue, and there's bad blood between the parties. But for the good of the State of Israel they've figured out how to make a coalition of sorts and run as one party.

They haven't yet published the exact Knesset list, but I'm glad to see that Matan Kahana is included. I was very impressed by him when he spoke in Shiloh a few months ago.

I want a strong Right wing party to the Right of the Likud in the Knesset. Like a strong magnet, it should pull the Likud Rightwards.

Matan Kahana, who may be #7 on the "joint Right list"

Israeli Elections 2019 Redo, I'm Bored & You?

I just can't get excited about the "redo" upcoming Knesset Elections.

For a "political junkie" like myself, this is an awful confession. I haven't a clue as to which party I should vote for. I don't want to "waste" my vote again, but I don't like the choices.

I'm not happy with a lot of what Bibi Netanyahu has done, but the competition is a gazillion times worse.

I can't stand those who control Mafdal, National Religious Party NRP-Jewish Home or whatever they're called now.

The thought of giving my vote to a party that has Moshe Feiglin turns my stomach.

Am I the only Israeli who feels like this? Please, tell me. Try to make me feel better.

It's Friday morning. Shabbat's tonight, and the pool should be open soon. Plus we have a busy family day today Gd willing.

It's summer, and even though I'm on a "full time vacation" now, it's the season to feel like "holiday mode."

Gd willing, it'll all work out...

Shabbat Shalom uMevorach

May You have a Blessed Shabbat

No idea what this is, just like no idea which party I'll vote for in the "redo" elections.

Elections? Do I Really Have To Choose Political Pary?

We'll be celebrating forty-nine 49 years since making aliyah a bit after the upcoming Israeli elections. Choosing which political party to vote for has been getting harder and harder. These upcoming elections will be the second this year. The first were a bust, a failure.

I haven't had a favorite reliable political party for decades. I never know which party would be best to vote for. Usually, I eliminate them all for various reasons, and then I have to start from scratch. More than once, the party I voted for never even made it to the Knesset, and my vote was "lost."

The other day I met with a couple of friends who know a lot more insider stuff about politics, so I asked their opinions after hashing over the previous results. They confirmed what I had suspected about the party I voted for a couple of months ago, The New Right. Now I'm mulling over their suggestions for the next "try." Sigh...

For all the Israelis reading this:

Which political party are you going to vote for in the next elections? Why?

Politically "Homeless" Post Israeli Elections 2019

I've seen this term on the pages of a few facebook friends who, like me, had supported Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked's "The New Right" party. The New Right missed getting into the Knesset by a ridiculously small number of votes.

In response to those who suggest that we should "just return to the NRP/Jewish Home party," that's totally absurd and further proof that I've been orphaned yet again.

Why do they presume that I had a home in the Jewish Home?

I'm not of Bnai Akiva/NRP/Jewish Home. My Torah Judaism is a result of my years in NCSY, my Zionism is from Betar and it was coming to age during the 1967 Six Days War which drew me to live in Liberated Shiloh.

My Israeli political identification was more Yisrael Eldad than Menachem Begin, especially once Begin gave Egypt the Sinai and destroyed all of the Jewish communities that had been built there. As a result of the Camp David Accords, I aligned with the Techiya Party, but after about a decade, that, too failed to make the cut and enter the Knesset. Since then I find myself searching for a political party which I can trust ideologically.

One very important thing that keeps me from feeling "at home" in The Jewish Home is that I am ideologically opposed to parties based on religious observance. Here in the State of Israel we must look out for all Jews and citizens, what's best for the entire country, not just the "crocheted kippah" crowd.

The second recommended option for political affiliation is the Likud, but that, too isn't a good match for me. The Likud is too Centrist for my ideology, and I firmly believe that it is important that there be a strong Right party to pull the Likud Right.

The New Right was a good match for my requirements, and I like and respect some of the top people. I think there were two reasons they missed votes. One was in their control, and the other wasn't, though there's a connection.

1. Moshe Feiglin's mishmash/supermarket party with a conflicting/contradicting choice of ideologies, plus his past as a Right wing politician/wannabe attracted some voters who had been debating between him and New Right. Some of them refused to read the "fine print" of his platform and Knesset list; they voted for Feiglin.
2. I wasn't impressed by the campaign run by the New Right. I had been hoping that Caroline Glick would have been given free hand to produce and publicize a lot of Latma style campaign videos,which would have been more attractive and less strident. I have no doubt that the additional voters they would have attracted would easily have put the New Right into the Knesset.

Now I'm politically homeless, or more accurately orphaned. While my favorite politicians and political wannabes lick their wounds, recover, heal and plan for the future, I'll wait patiently. Really, there isn't much else for me to do. I won't be quiet. I'll blog and comment when I have something to say. That's what I do.

Gd willing Binyamin Netanyahu and his crew will build a ruling coalition that will pleasantly surprise me. Let's see if he really annexes all the yishuvim, which was his last minute campaign promise.

Gd willing next Knesset Elections results will be more to my liking.

Not enough people voted as I did, for נ The New Right
Knesset Elections 2019 Israeli Elections

Three 3 Weeks to Purim 5779 Jewish Israeli Blog Roundup

Not only is it three weeks to Purim, but we're just over a month to the 2019, 5779 Israeli Knesset Elections. Generally these two topics generate some very interesting Jewish Israeli blog posts.



I hope you enjoy the selection of blog posts, I've chosen. Please check them out, comment and share, and if you have any additional blogs to suggest, please let me know in the comments, thanks. As is my custom, I'm just listing titles here. Enjoy.

Jerusalem "Big Blue" Lions to The 2019 Finals!
Gala World Betar Reunion, Updated
The Misleading Times of Israel
Generational Baton (Vayakhel)
Searching for Family Roots/Stories, The Spiegelman's of Nasielsk*, Poland
Eating My Way Through (Her) Cancer
Beginning - Middle - End
Who Wrote: "We must be free of the Arabs"?
Dershowitz explains why indicting Netanyahu over petty issues is bad for democracy
Leadership Bankruptcy in NRP aka Jewish Home Party
why is Shas about to disappear? (video)
Hamas Still Fighting a Losing Battle…Against Israeli Food Products
Oh My Goodness (OMG) from Beer Bazaar
Kushner "Peace" sic Deal- Dumb and Dangerous
1001 objects from Israel - The Suspicious Object
The Importance of Being Lit

Which was your favorite and least favorite post? You can tell me in comments, thanks.

Leadership Bankruptcy in NRP aka Jewish Home Party

One of the most veteran of Israeli political parties, those that predate the Establishment of the State of Israel, is NRP (Mafdal) aka Jewish Home Party. It's traditionally Center Left, religious, but not too extreme, Zionist and always in the ruling coalition.

In the early days of the State of Israel, their aim was to establish and strengthen the Mamlachti Dati, State Religious School system and add Jewish Tradition wherever possible to Israeli life and law. In many ways they seemed closer to mainstream Labor Party, because both had kibbutzim and moshavim to protect and coddle.

As time went on, and especially after Israel's totally miraculous victory in the 1967 Six Days War, the NRP began to change. Its first generation raised in the State of Israel became the most enthusiastic in Israeli society for settling the Land liberated in the war and Israel's increased security and prosperity enabled more and deeper Torah learning.

Children and grandchildren of old NRP leadership and graduates of the Mamlachti Dati, State Religious Schools began looking to emulate the heavy Torah learning of the chareidim, even establishing full-time Kollel programs and chareidi-like elementary and high schools for boys, where the graduates wouldn't be qualified to pass Bagrut tests for a high school diploma, which is necessary for university and certification in most vocational studies.

At the same time, in the political sphere, they've established numerous other political parties, more religious and Right ideology then the venerable NRP aka Jewish Home Party.

That's why  unlike Likud, descended from prestate Revisionist Herut, the veteran Labor Party and the chareidi parties, there's no internal competition or primaries for the leadership role in the NRP aka Jewish Home Party. There's a leadership bankruptcy; its graduates have moved on and away.

Every few years a new "leader" is recruited from various other occupations or parties. The NRP backroom mafia controls the party and all the property that has been in the "family" for probably close to a hundred years.

The words behind NRP are "national religious party." Honestly I, like Naftali Bennett and many others, some who vote Likud, are ideologically against a party that labels itself as dati, religious.

I believe that we all, no matter how many and how carefully we keep Gd's commandments, must work together to govern and steer the State of Israel. I look for a political party with vision and commitment to the Torah, Land of Israel and the entire Jewish People.

Gd willing, I'll be voting for the New Right, although I honestly don't like the name Bennett and Shaked chose. And it's reassuring to me that Caroline Glick has chosen to run for Knesset in the New Right. Gd willing, we'll see her in the Knesset soon.

Israel Elections 2019, 5779 Latest Polls

Two interesting polls are out on Jeremy's Knesset Insider, both hot off the press, meaning that they include both the New Right of Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked and Labor running on its own, sans Tzipi Livni.

The shocker for many is that Bennett and Shaked are correct in their guess that they had brought most votes to the veteran NRP (National Religious Party,) now called Jewish Home. The polls show that without them, Jewish Home may not even get into the Knesset. The NRP is doing worse than Livni, which even has me shocked.  And I'm pretty sure that the polls were done before Caroline Glick publicly joined the New Right. She should bring votes from Likud and NRP.

I'm just going to copy/paste from Jeremy's Knesset Insider and let you take a good look. What do you think? Of, course, we still have a while to go before the actual elections, but so far it looks interesting. Honestly, I love this stuff.

PS Please remember that these are just polls; they aren't election results.

Kan Channel Poll: Likud 28, Israel Resilience 14, Yesh Atid 13, Joint List 12, HaYamin HeHadash 9

TNS conducted a poll of 543 people for the Kan Channel that was broadcast on Jan 2 2018.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [30] Likud
14 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz)
13 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [18] Labor
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [07] Shas
06 [05] Meretz
06 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
00 [06] Livni Party (close to the threshold)
00 [05] Bayit Yehudi (far from the threshold)
00 [–-] Telem (Yaalon), Zehut (Feiglin), Yachad (Eli Yishai), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited for Prime Minister?

40% Netanyahu, 30% Gantz, 30% Don’t know

Who is more suited for Prime Minister?

40% Netanyahu, 36% Don’t know, 24% Lapid

******

Channel 13 Poll: Likud 31, Israel Resilience 12, Joint List 12, Yesh Atid 10, Labor 8

Midgam conducted a poll for Channel 13 that was broadcast on Jan 2 2018.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [30] Likud
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz)
10 [11] Yesh Atid
08 [18] Labor
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [10] Kulanu
05 [07] Shas
05 [06] Livni Party
05 [05] Meretz
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
00 [–] (1.8% of vote) Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–-] (1.3% of vote) Telem (Yaalon)
00 [–] (1% of vote) Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv)
00 [–] (0.4% of vote) Zehut (Feiglin)
00 [–] Green Leaf and Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Scenario Poll: Gantz + Livni

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [30] Likud
15 [06] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Livni
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [11] Yesh Atid
08 [18] Labor
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [10] Kulanu
05 [07] Shas
05 [05] Meretz
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
00 [–] (1.8% of vote) Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–-] (1.3% of vote) Telem (Yaalon)
00 [–] (1% of vote) Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv)
00 [–] (0.4% of vote) Zehut (Feiglin)
00 [–] Green Leaf and Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

*Note: Scenario poll total is 119 seats, not 120.

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited for Prime Minister?

37% Don’t know, 35% Netanyahu, 28% Gantz

Who is more suited for Prime Minister?

55% Don’t know, 38% Netanyahu, 17% Lapid

The Knesset can be seen in the background. Remember that Israeli Elections are for Knesset seats, not for Prime Minister.

Political Surprise from Israeli Left, Politics Never Dull

Pundits weren't really shocked when Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked announced that they were divorcing the NRP Jewish Home to start an independent New Right party.

But Labour's Avi Gabay's sayonara to Tzippi Livni's did take people by surprise, and that includes Tzippi herself. Yes, the Zionist Union is no longer "united." Apparently, it was a marriage made in hell, at least for him.

Livni has bounced through Israel's political spectrum probably more than any other politician. She also may be the only one as "party head" who although getting the most Knesset seats, couldn't or wasn't given the nod to form a ruling coalition. Maybe she should just take the hint and retire.

When elections are scheduled, it's never dull here in Israel.

More on Bennett-Shaked, Israel Not Governed by Laws of Nature and Math

It's less than twenty-four 24 hours since  Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked shook things up by announcing that they're breaking from the NRP-Jewish Home Party and establishing the New Right. No surprise that many people claim that they are making a mistake.

The popular  reason that most everyone is giving is one of Mathematics. By breaking away and forming a new party, they are diluting the chances of the so-called Right wing Likud to continue in power. Of course, according to logic, the Laws of Nature and Numbers they seem correct. But as I titled this post:

Israel Not Governed by Laws of Nature and Math

If the State of Israel, the Jewish People and the Land of Israel were like any other in the world:

1. We certainly would be been defeated/destroyed in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, 
2. if we hadn't been invaded and destroyed in the 1967 Six Days War.
3. Most probably, there never would have been a State of Israel, since on paper we had so little going for us when we declared Independence on May, 14, 1948.
4. A "normal" people would have been so beaten, both physically in terms of numbers and emotionally, that any remaining Jews would have taken the express train to complete and utter assimilation after the Holocaust. 
5. Or most probably, like our ancient contemporaries/enemies, we'd be no more than a footnote in history. 

Israeli politics is more than plain numbers. There must be balance in the ideological spectrum, and our political spectrum has been over-heavy on the Left for a long time. There are quite a number of Far Left parties, both Arab and Jewish, but there hasn't been a strong unabashed Right Pro-Jewish Rights in the Land of Israel for much too long. That's why political positions that had once been only heard from the Far Left are now heard in the Center and what I'll call the "Lite Right."

Although the media loves to call Likud an ideologically Right party, the truth is that it's Center-Right. As is the NRP establishment which  controls certain aspects of the Jewish Home Party. It kept reigning in Bennett and Shaked to the Center, which is what the NRP is all about. For the NRP, it has always been a claim to fame that they could mould themselves to suit any coalition, Right, Left or Center.

Think of the ideological aspect of the political scene here as a Tug of War. The Far Left has been tugging and there is no equivalent balance/weight from the Right. Some of you may be saying:

"What about Avigdor Lieberman?"

To be perfectly honest, he has his own unique views, which change periodically according to what he thinks will give him more electoral support. Or to follow my "Tug of War" analogy, his rope isn't attached to the one everyone else is tugging. He's just faking it.

I don't pretend to be a fortune teller, and I don't have any recent direct contact with Naftali Bennett or Ayelet Shaked. So, I certainly can't guarantee that the New Right will be what they are saying it will be. One thing I do know is that Prime Minister Netanyahu firmly believes that to be Prime Minister, he must keep to what he considers the political center. I heard him say so in person. Gd willing, Bennett and Shaked don't hold that opinion.

Naftali Bennett visiting us when he was head of YESHA Council

2019, 5779 Israeli Elections, Party Time, Bennett-Shaked Shake Things Up

Tonight, Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked announced that they were breaking away from the NRP (National Religious Party) aka Jewish Home Party and establishing a new political party that would be to the Right of the political spectrum and open to all shades of religiosity. Bennett and Shaked are calling their party the "New Right."

In all honesty, I'm not surprised. I'm more surprised that they managed to stay in the rather staid NRP for five years. When Bennett told the old leadership, the ones who handle the money and property of the venerable old party, that the secular and female Ayelet Shaked was an indispensable part of his leadership package, I have no doubt that they were more shaken up than the British Royal Family when Harry made his relationship with Meghan Markle public.

Just under forty years ago, the Techiya Party was established by legendary Geula Cohen and Yuval Neeman. It was a straight-talking Right party, which I supported and mourn its demise. In the 1992 elections, it didn't receive enough votes to pass the minimum threshold and ceased to exist.

My guess is that the New Right is a 21st century version of Techiya, and from what Bennett and Shaked said at the press conference tonight, they would be happy adopting something I heard Geula Cohen say at a Parlour Meeting in Bayit Vegan, Jerusalem.

Geula was asked:

"Is Techiya a religious party?"

Geula replied:

"Techiya isn't a religious party; it's a Jewish party."

I have never liked religion as a criteria for politics and government. We have to work together.

What do you think?

Just Wondering, How Accurate are The Polls?

Do the election polls really show what the 2019 results will be in Israeli Knesset Elections?

First of all, we don't yet know for sure which parties, new and old, will be vying for a share of those one hundred and twenty 120 seats. We must also take into account that the votes for parties that don't reach the minimum number are added to a "pot" of surplus votes which are then distributed among the winning parties by a very complicated formula. And the parties running still have to decide on their lists. Some of them use the democratic primary system, frequently with "reserved" spots given to wannabes chosen by the party leadership. Other parties are run like private "families." Some are run by committees, and the question is:

Who appointed the committee members?

With all this uncertainty, it's really hard to know today what will be in three and a half months' time. For the latest political election polls, I check on Jeremy's Knesset Insider. He keeps track, and in each post he also shows the right/left balance. Of course, this is just the "potential" and lots of guesswork, since there are political parties which shift right/left according to which way they think will bring them votes during election time and power in coalition negotiations.

Just to remind you that in Israel we vote for Knesset seats only. We do not vote for Prime Minister. Also, no political party gets a majority of the 120 seats, so that a potential prime minister must be a tremendously skilled and talented wheeler-dealer aka negotiator. This is the reality of Israeli government, political system.

Will Bibi's "center" policies win him another term as Prime Minister of the State of Israel?

A "Joke" of a Party- Politics!

You need a sense of humor and imagination at times to follow Israeli politics. Many times, pretty much before every Knesset election, some backer comes up with a "tasters menu" of losers and wannabes to run together as a "great white hope" political party.

Even if these new parties make it into the Knesset, they are a disaster, as they have nothing but ambition and failures in common. The latest such Frankenstein being touted, still nameless of course, though backed by a group of reform-minded sic activists called “Beshvil (For) Yisrael,” would include Adina Bar-Shalom, the daughter of the late Chief Rabbi of Israel and cofounder of the Shas party Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, former Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon, Yeruham Mayor Michael Biton and breakaway MK Orly Levy-Abekasis daughter of  popular former MK and Minister David Levy.

After following Israeli politics almost half a century, nothing is really new to me. I've seen and heard it all before. None of these politicians, and you don't have to be an MK to be one, show real leadership and trustworthiness. I can easily see how many polls asking Israelis who's best for Prime Minister show "none of the above" as first choice.

Shabbat Shalom U'Mevorach

Have a Peaceful and Blessed Shabbat Everyone

Israeli Elections, 2015, 5775, Dangerous Instability of "Unity" Government

I'm not at all surprised that it has been taking Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu a very long time to construct, negotiate his newest government coalition. His last one was an unstable disaster, and I am certain that he does not want to repeat such a scenario.

Vote counting in Israel, as complicated as it is, meaning you have to count all those little pieces of paper, record the numbers, add up each parties share and then calculate percentages, subtract the parties that didn't make the minimum and then recalculate to get the actual amount of Knesset seats per party.

Photo by Linda

That's child's play compared to what Bibi has been trying to do. He has to get enough like-minded party leaders to agree to work with him and compromise their ministerial dreams and promises to voters. And this year, we had the Passover holiday right in the middle of the limited time period Israeli law allocates to the possible Prime Minister. And during Passover, some party leaders won't do anything as mundane as negotiate for political gain.

And we must not forget that the previous, meaning outgoing government was a coalition nightmare, since two of the party leaders behaved unabashedly as opposition. They were Tsipi Livni and Yair Lapid. Netanyahu had no choice other than to fire them and call for new elections. OK, maybe he should have acted much, much sooner against Livni which would have given Lapid a lesson/warning, but he didn't.

So now, with the results of this more recent elections, he's pretty much left with a similar dilemma. At least he doesn't have Naftali Bennett insisting on bringing in Lapid as a "package," which meant he could not have the chareidi MKs.

But negotiations have not been going all that well for Netanyahu. And the pressure by President Ruby Rivlin to construct a monstrous "national unity government" has only been making things worse:

Israel needs a broad government as possible, given the current efforts to prevent the nuclearization of Iran, President Reuven Rivlin told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of Wednesday’s Holocaust Remembrance Day ceremony at Yad Vashem, a source close to Rivlin said on Thursday.
The source said Rivlin also had spoken about the need for a broad coalition with Zionist Union leader Isaac Herzog at an event last week in Ein Gedi. (Jerusalem Post)

The key slogan to Herzog's camp was "anyone but Bibi," so for him to join such a coalition without a very pricey "gift" would be problematic with his supporters. And the previous government fell apart due to conflicting aims of its supposed partners. IMHO a unity government would be a total and utter disaster. Isaac Herzog is no Menachem Begin who humbly joined the Labor Party's national unity government in 1967.

There very well may be more political stability and strength in a small, like-minded coalition, which is what some pundits say will be:

Meanwhile, Likud sources are preparing for the possibility that Netanyahu will present a 61-MK coalition that will comprise Likud, Kulanu, Habayit Hayehudi and the ultra-Orthodox parties. After the coalition is sworn in, Netanyahu could turn to Yisrael Beytenu or, alternatively, the Zionist Union. Complicating a potential deal with the Zionist Union (the Labor-Hatnuah joint list) is Labor leader Isaac Herzog's insistence on Tzipi Livni and her Hatnuah party being part of the government, something that Netanyahu adamantly opposes. (Israel Hayom)

Also take into account that Netanyahu may be faced with rebellion from his own Likud MKs if he makes a deal with the Leftist Herzog:

MKs David Amsalem, David Bitan, Jackie Levy, Miki Zohar and Abraham Naguise reacted to a Channel 1 report from Monday that Netanyahu held a secret meeting before Passover with Zionist Union leader Isaac Herzog to explore the possibility of a national unity government.
“We promised out voters a nationalist government,” Amsalem said. “We have to go with those we see eye to eye with ideologically, not with [Arab Zionist Union MK] Zouheir Bahloul.”
What is being described in the party as a “mini-rebellion” by parliamentarians who have not started work yet, came amid reports that Netanyahu was not succeeding in his attempt to woo Herzog. (Jerusalem Post)

As I've said before, I'm glad I'm not in Bibi's shoes.

Shabbat Shalom to All

Israeli Elections, 2015, 5775, Movement Within Blocs, Predictions/Pundit #3

Again, I'd like to say that I'm enjoying the ease of checking Israeli Election, 2015, 5775, polls on Jeremy's site, which is most helpful for getting a good view of voter opinion trends with minimal opinion.

As I see it there are a couple of steady (taking into account the accepted margin of error, which is generally 3.5-5%) blocs of Israeli voters debating between two parties.

One of the interesting and predictable voting blocs in the upcoming Israeli Elections consists of those who had voted for Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid, which was the "vote for a newbie" success story two years ago. This is a very predictable Israeli election phenomenon which we see in almost every Israeli Knesset Election results. There's almost always a new vaguely "Center" party which gets a surprisingly high amount of votes, even though it's list is generally full of people without any real political experience. Two years ago Lapid won twenty 20 seats. Now, most of the polls are showing that those twenty seats are being split between his party and the newbie Koolaid, oops Koolanu headed by the disgruntled former Likud MK and minister, Moshe Kahlon. It's not quite clear what he really stands for other than returning to power, making him a suitable recipient for the fickle voters who had formerly voted for Lapid, at least two years ago.

Another bloc of voters is those who are debating between Likud and Bayit Yehudi. In pretty much all of the polls, their grand total makes up just under forty 40 seats. They are the Center Right of the Israeli political spectrum. What makes it hard to decide for many is that they, the voters, are more to the Right, though they know that their politicians are more Center and even Left in the Likud. Even if the election results give that bloc a total of forty 40 Knesset seats, they still need another twenty plus 20+ to form a coalition government. And that's where things get difficult.

Who can be Bibi's coalition partners?

Even though Yair Lapid's first government experience ended badly, remember that he and super-fickle opportunists Tsipi Livni were booted out of the government forcing Bibi to announce new elections, he's acting more diplomatic/political this time, carefully hedging his bets and refusing to refuse sitting with anyone. He has tasted power and the comfort of a "Volvo" including its government paid driver and wants another chance, not voicing an opinion about who should be Prime Minister.

Kahlon is another power wannabe. He wouldn't have started this campaign if his aim wasn't to return to the cabinet.

None of the polls so far gives those four parties a comfortable sixty-plus 60+ total.

The next post, bli neder, in this series will discuss the religious/chareidi parties and Avigdor Lieberman, and how they can fit in the next Likud government.

Yes, I think it will be a Likud led government yet again. There are two main reasons for that.

1. I don't think there are the potential numbers of predicted MKs willing to sit comfortably in a Herzog-Livni led Leftist government coalition. 
2. Neither Herzog nor Livni is politically skilled and capable of orchestrating and controlling a government coalition. 

Of course, this entire post should be prefaced with IMHO, In my humble opinion....

Israeli Knesset Elections 2015, 5775, Trying to Keep Up With Party Switching

No doubt that there will be more news and more party switching, like "wife-swapping" among Israeli politicians and wannabes.

Loyalty seems to be a lost skill in Israeli politics, whether it's to ideals, principles or parties. Just like the athletes who switch teams according to whatever contract/salary their agents can get them, our politicians go after the party that can get them the best chance of a Knesset seat and/or cabinet post. Some people may say that I sound cynical and sarcastic, but I think that I'm a total realist, very pragmatic. Read on...

Today's party jumping champ is certainly Tsipi Livni, who although raised in a strong Revisionist home, like Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, has gone off the deep end politically by not only aligning herself with the extreme Left Labor and Issac Herzog, but her foul-mouthed innuendoed appearance on an Israeli satire show turned even more people off.  (sorry no translation)


For those who don't remember, Tsipi deserted Likud for Kadima, Kadima for her "The Movement" (a name which got a lot of uncomplimentary laughs,) and now since that ship is sinking she has joined Herzog's Labor Party.

Political zigzagging goes to Avigdor Lieberman, who hopefully by trying to please everyone will attract much fewer votes than before.

Floating votes magnet is now doubt Moshe Kahlon, who is trying for the equivalent of the Herbert Hoover prize, since he's trying to recruit a chulent, Shabbat stew of discounters.

A report in Globes Sunday said that among the candidates to run with Kahlon will be Itzik Alrov, a hareidi Israeli from Bnei Brak who was the catalyst for the “cottage cheese protests” several years ago. It was Alrov's Facebook page on the high cost of dairy products that set off a chain reaction that led to mass protests about costs.
Another prospective member of Kulanu is Avi Katz, a member of the Religious Zionist community who is Israel's “father of five shekel coffee.” Katz is the owner of the Coffix chain of coffee shops, which sells everything – coffee, juice, cakes, and sandwiches – for five shekels. In the wake of Coffix's popularity, other five shekel chains have sprung up around the country, and even “traditional” coffee shops have cut costs in order to meet Katz's prices.
According to some reports, the party may even include the penultimate Israeli bargain maker – Rami Levy, head of the eponymous supermarket chain – on the list. Levy's chain is known for discounting, and for running specials on basic items like chicken, which he sells for 5 or 10 shekels a kilo, especially around holiday time, when other chains raise their prices.

For the "recycling prize," there's the new party being whipped together by Shas's Eli Yishai, veteran party-jumper Uri Ariel and possibly joined by NRP aka Jewish Home MK Yoni Chetboun.

Miriam Alster/Flash90

And lastly, our "surprise jumper" is Dani Dayan who is leaving Likud for the NRP aka Jewish Home.

Dayan's decision is seen as a decisive move to the right, as he has previously expressed support for Likud and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
Bennett welcomed the move at a press conference Sunday.
"I am glad [Dayan] has joined Jewish Home," Bennett stated, noting he first turned to Dayan at the Saban Forum in Washington last week. "He is a real fighter for the Land of Israel."

That took me by surprise.

Remember that there are still three months until the Knesset Elections, and the date for primaries and closing of party applications still haven't passed, so there will be more surprises and shake-ups to come. Hold onto your hats, unless you, too, will be tossing them into the ring.