Thursday, December 27, 2018

Just Wondering, How Accurate are The Polls?

Do the election polls really show what the 2019 results will be in Israeli Knesset Elections?

First of all, we don't yet know for sure which parties, new and old, will be vying for a share of those one hundred and twenty 120 seats. We must also take into account that the votes for parties that don't reach the minimum number are added to a "pot" of surplus votes which are then distributed among the winning parties by a very complicated formula. And the parties running still have to decide on their lists. Some of them use the democratic primary system, frequently with "reserved" spots given to wannabes chosen by the party leadership. Other parties are run like private "families." Some are run by committees, and the question is:
Who appointed the committee members?
With all this uncertainty, it's really hard to know today what will be in three and a half months' time. For the latest political election polls, I check on Jeremy's Knesset Insider. He keeps track, and in each post he also shows the right/left balance. Of course, this is just the "potential" and lots of guesswork, since there are political parties which shift right/left according to which way they think will bring them votes during election time and power in coalition negotiations.

Just to remind you that in Israel we vote for Knesset seats only. We do not vote for Prime Minister. Also, no political party gets a majority of the 120 seats, so that a potential prime minister must be a tremendously skilled and talented wheeler-dealer aka negotiator. This is the reality of Israeli government, political system.

Will Bibi's "center" policies win him another term as Prime Minister of the State of Israel?


Esser Agaroth said...

Well, at least Jewish Home, which is neither Jewish (truly Torah focused), a Home, nor really a party (Just a reinvention of NRP), will lose a few seats. (wink, giggle)

Anonymous said...

Hi Batya,
Re: the votes for parties that don't reach the minimum number are added to a "pot" of surplus votes...
I'm afraid you've got this wrong- easy to do, as the calculations ARE complicated. (I'm Israeli born so know it all from school).
Anyway- the votes for parties that did not reach the threshold are Lost votes. The Bader-Ofer law relates to votes for parties which have passed the threshold so that they get X seats, plus some votes left over which don't make a whole seat. To avoid losing these surplus votes a party will make an agreement with another (as ideologically close as possible) party, to join their surplus votes so that one of them will get an extra seat.
(There is no need to publish my comment, it's just for you in case you want to correct this point.)

All the best - Esther Welch, Givatayim

Batya said...

Esser, it's still early. I wouldn't make predictions at this point.
a, "complicated" covers it as far as I'm concerned.

Esser Agaroth said...

Sur. No predictions. Just some musings on the elections and the powers that be. (Wink)

Batya said...

Should be entertaining. Do you agree?
Even if in the genre of Theatre of the Absurd.

Mr. Cohen said...

Does anyone here believe that Israel would be
better-off with an American-style government?


Winston Churchill said this in 1937 CE:

“[Winston] Churchill did not accept
that the Jews were a foreign race
[to the Holy Land]. He said it was
the Arabs who had been the outsiders,
the conquerors.”

SOURCE: Churchill and the Jews
(chapter 10, page 115) by Martin Gilbert, year 2007 CE

Winston Churchill was British Prime Minister
from 1940 to 1945 CE and from 1951 to 1955 CE.


According to the Wikipedia internet encyclopedia,
these lands were conquered by the Rashidun Caliphs,
from year 632 to year 661 of the Common Era
(from west to East): Libya, Egypt, Israel, Lebanon,
Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Eastern Turkey, and Iran.

Therefore, Winston Churchill was correct when
he said that the Muslims were the outsiders
and conquerors, with respect to the land of Israel.


Who are the Palestinians?

Batya said...

Mr. Cohen, that two party system just wouldn't work here. And the districts would be the worst most immoral example of gerrymandering in the world. Please. Don't even think of it.

tora blog said...