Just Wondering, How Accurate are The Polls?

Do the election polls really show what the 2019 results will be in Israeli Knesset Elections?

First of all, we don't yet know for sure which parties, new and old, will be vying for a share of those one hundred and twenty 120 seats. We must also take into account that the votes for parties that don't reach the minimum number are added to a "pot" of surplus votes which are then distributed among the winning parties by a very complicated formula. And the parties running still have to decide on their lists. Some of them use the democratic primary system, frequently with "reserved" spots given to wannabes chosen by the party leadership. Other parties are run like private "families." Some are run by committees, and the question is:

Who appointed the committee members?

With all this uncertainty, it's really hard to know today what will be in three and a half months' time. For the latest political election polls, I check on Jeremy's Knesset Insider. He keeps track, and in each post he also shows the right/left balance. Of course, this is just the "potential" and lots of guesswork, since there are political parties which shift right/left according to which way they think will bring them votes during election time and power in coalition negotiations.

Just to remind you that in Israel we vote for Knesset seats only. We do not vote for Prime Minister. Also, no political party gets a majority of the 120 seats, so that a potential prime minister must be a tremendously skilled and talented wheeler-dealer aka negotiator. This is the reality of Israeli government, political system.

Will Bibi's "center" policies win him another term as Prime Minister of the State of Israel?