Knesset Elections 2019 Redo, Left Split by Ehud Barak

I guess I shouldn't be surprised. Ehud Barak is throwing his hat into the ring yet again. It's a generation since he had served the country, horrendously poorly, and many Israelis don't remember. Of course I remember. As you know, I haven't supported the Likud since before it, led by then Prime Minister Menachem Begin, gave the Sinai to Egypt and had Jewish communities destroyed and uprooted Israeli citizens.

I'm glad that the television newswriters/casters kept identifying Ehud Barak as seventy-eight 78, even though he has quite a few months until his February birthday. That makes Bibi Netanyahu look young. He'll only be turning 70 in October. Bibi's younger than US President Trump and the two Democratic frontrunners, Biden and Sanders.

In terms of basic policy, "anyone but Bibi," there isn't much difference between Barak's nameless party and the Gantz-Lapid-Bogi etc ad nauseum Blue & White. The biggest difference is that with the exception of  Lapid, none of the Blue & White leaders have much political experience, while Barak had been Prime Minister, though a failed one, from 1999 to 2001.

Are you among those who can't remember Barak's very short term as Prime Minister of the State of Israel?

To be as concise as possible... Barak's funders, yes, he had backers (and no doubt has some rich ones now, too,) paid for an American "campaign expert." This expert insisted that he needed a catchy, attractive slogan. Their polling info was that many Israelis didn't like the fact that the IDF had been fighting in Lebanon, because soldiers had been killed, etc. So Barak promised that if he was elected Prime Minister, Israel would leave Lebanon.

When the Americans left, OK pulled out of Vietnam, there was dangerous bedlam. But remember that Vietnam is thousands and thousands of miles away from the United States, so there was no direct danger to the United States of America. Israel and Lebanon share a border, and it isn't the Pacific Ocean. After Barak was elected Prime Minister, Israel had to flee Lebanon and ended up leaving valuable security information and equipment. His opponents called him "Barach," which sounds similar to Barak, but it means "fled." Israel's security plummeted, but that wasn't Barak's only problem. His coalition was shaky, because he had to include the Shas Party, which is Chareidi-Sephardi.  They were at loggerheads with Barak's Leftist followers. The Israeli political system requires a working coalition of a minimum of sixty-one 61 Knesset Members. A Prime Minister must be able to control his MKs. Barak couldn't.



Since Barak, Blue & White and Israel's Labor Party are after the same voters, you can guess. I'm curious about what's next....

Israeli Politics, Deja Vu

There's a very simple reason I haven't been blogging much about Israeli politics. It is getting boring and tedious. Jeremy has posted two recent polls, which show rather predictable trends. Both polls use the same basic number of respondents, just under six hundred 600. I'd consider the margin of error rather large, and since no new "savior" has appeared on the scene... Also, even though the media and police are doing all they can to find something corrupt/jailable about Prime Minister Netanyahu, he still comes out #1 in the question:

"Who is the most suited to be Prime Minister?"

So, I will copy/paste the two polls and follow it with a bit of my commentary:

Poll #1: Walla

Panels conducted a poll of 589 people that was broadcast by Walla News on March 1 2018.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [30] Likud
23 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [24] Zionist Union
11 [08] Bayit Yehudi
10 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [10] Kulanu
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
08 [05] Meretz
06 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [07] Shas (under threshold)
00 [–-] Yachad, Yaalon, Zehut (as other) under threshold

66 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
54 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Who is the most suited to be Prime Minister?

37% Netanyahu, 20% Lapid, 19% None, 9% Gabbai, 8% Bennett, 5% Kahlon, 2% Liberman

Poll #2: Yisrael Hayom

Geocartography conducted a poll of 587 people that was published by Yisrael Hayom on March 2 2018.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [30] Likud
23 [11] Yesh Atid
11 [08] Bayit Yehudi
10 [24] Zionist Union
10 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Meretz
05 [10] Kulanu
05 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [07] Shas (under threshold)
00 [–-] Yachad, Yaalon, Zehut (as other) under threshold

71 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
49 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

One thing for sure is that the Likud will end up getting some of the Bayit Yehudi votes. It happens every time. In the final day before elections, Bibi will send out urgent announcements/warnings claiming falsely that "the Likud must have more MKs to form a coalition. If people vote for Bayit Yehudi, then X will be able to form a coalition instead." Of course, he omits the simple fact that it's the sum total needed to form a government, and that the smaller he can make Bayit Yehudi the more power he'll have over it. If Bayit Yehudi is larger, then Bibi will have to give in to its coalition demands.

If you look at the first poll, you'll see that Lapid and "none of the above" are almost tied for 2nd 3rd place. But all they have is really just over half the support and trust that Bibi has. And Bibi is constantly the butt/target of police and media accusations of corruption. After all the efforts the police have made to find something to charge Netanyahu with, they're looking rather desperate and even corrupt, if you follow. I suggest reading Caroline Glick's recent article, Defending the rule of law.

Looking at another section of both the polls is very interesting. Both polls show Shas as just under the minimum threshold to be represented in the Knesset, and both show an increase in the Yahadut Hatorah (UTJ.) My guess is that as the chareidi-style sephardim mature into second generation, they are more comfortable in chareidi society and now look at and vote as in the "big picture," as chareidim, rather than sephardim.

One last thing. If you're ever invited to the Prime Minister's Residence, don't bring a consumable "house gift," such as cake, candy, wine or cigars. You may be charged with bribery...

Israeli Elections, 2015, 5775, Chrareidi Women's Party Boycotted to Death

When I first heard that one of the "New Parties on the Block" to run in Israeli Knesset Elections is of Chareidi women, בזכותן Bizchutan, all I could think was "oxymoron." There's an inherent impossibility in the term.

Chareidi women who want to run for political office don't suit the full definition of "chareidi." It just can't happen. Chareidi is more than just a way of observing Judaism's mitzvot, commandments. It's accepting a certain life-style and customs. It's being part of a strict social inflexible structure, which may be a bit more liberal (with a small "L") at home within the confines of family, but in the public realm there's very little leeway.

I remember watching the press conference a few weeks ago with Arye Deri and Rav Ovadia's very accomplished daughter,  Adina Bar-Shalom, when she announced that although she had been offered all sorts of offers to be in safe spots on Knesset lists, she was sticking with Shas and making do with joining Yaffa Deri on a new "Women's Council."

Therefore, I'm not at all surprised that the public leadership of the women's chareidi party are beginning to feel the pressure of their society against them in offers they can't refuse.

"Be careful - the ones who become muktzeh here aren't hareidi women, it's you who will be muktzeh because the hareidi society will excommunicate you, because the hareidi society will not receive your sons, it won't accept shiduchim (arranged marriages - ed.)," he warned.
Halbertal continued "you will be muktzeh there in the hareidi society. On the personal level I say to you, think twice about what you're doing to your family and also the other hareidi women there, you will be excommunicated for generations. They will denunciate you all, and rightly so, from the hareidi community."
The threats echo similar threats of excommunication from the hareidi school systems made last month by United Torah Judaism party activists against hareidi women who campaigned to have female representation in the hareidi parties. (Arutz 7)

Their families must decide whether they really want the pressure and rejection, because if they do, then they aren't really chareidi, are they?

Israeli Election Update: PA Sanctions, Deri Threats, Likud Recounts, Never Dull

I have no doubt that the Israeli, read Likud campaign threats to the P.A. Palestinian Authority to withhold funding is related to the 2015 (5775) Knesset Elections. Two reasons:

• primary results leave few Right candidates, including sitting Knesset Members, in the cold
• two years ago, Israel did the same, and two years ago, there was also Knesset elections

Prime Minister Binyamin Bibi Netanyahu is too good and experienced a politician to decide on anything like that by "chance."

***

As soon as there was talk of Arye Deri's possible resignation, there were predictions that it was just to pressure the Yosef clan and veteran Shas supporters for more support. These "resignations" aren't immediate, which gives time for drama for a showman like Deri.

Nothing is dull when Aryeh Deri is involved.

***

And the Likud Primaries are riddled with numerical improbabilities: 

According to Channel 2, in Beit Jann, MK Tzachi Hanegbi received 250 votes — but only 197 Likud members had voted overall. Similarly, in Jerusalem, MK Yuli Edelstein received nearly a thousand votes more than the number of voters at the station.
Hanegbi dropped down three spots, from 9th to 12th, after the reevaluation.

Read more: Likud primary recount still leaves Hotovely in the cold | The Times of Israel http://www.timesofisrael.com/likud-primary-recount-leaves-hotovely-in-same-place/#ixzz3NvWQq7Dv  Follow us: @timesofisrael on Twitter | timesofisrael on Facebook

Even though MK Tzippi Hotobelli initiated the recount, she is still out of the "safe seats" predicted by the polls. Many of the more "nationalist" or Right members of Likud have been disappointed in her politics of late. That's why she got fewer votes. And also she had gotten in on the "coattails" of the Moshe Feiglin supporters. He did much worse, because his supporters are very much disenchanted with the Likud in general. They either left the Likud or didn't vote in the primaries.

***

With over two months left before Knesset Elections, there's lots more to come. Stay tuned...

Gevalt! Though no surprise

Money speaks.

There's no other reason for the Shas Party to be thanking Shimon Peres for hi$ $upport.

Sephardic-haredi party's Council of Torah Sages, led by spiritual leader Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, orders its MKs to vote for vice premier in presidential elections: 'We decided to support Peres due to his years of work for Judaism' (for complete article click here)