Finally, Farewell to Tsipi Livni, Failed Politician

It's hard to know where to start when discussing Tsipi Livni, who formally announced her exit from active politics today.

I was lucky to catch the live broadcast and to hear and watch it. And to make it even better was the interview from a few months ago, which they showed right afterwards.

Simply put, it was a rather pathetic end to the career of a woman, who had worked her way up the political ladder and got within millimeters of the premiership of the State of Israel. Livni succeeded Ehud Olmert as head of the then ruling Kadima Party, which they had established after breaking away from the Likud. Both Livni and Olmert had come from Betar-Revisionist homes but moved Leftward politically. When Olmert was forced to resign due to corruption indictments, Livni took over the party.

Under Livni's leadership Kadima received more Knesset seats than Likud in the 2009 elections, but she failed in the task of forming a ruling coalition. Likud's Binyamin Bibi Netanyahu succeeded in forming a coalition and has been Prime Minister ever since. This bit of history is very important in understanding the Israeli political system. It's not enough to have good ideas and policies to be Prime Minister of the State of Israel. You must be an extraordinary politician and be able to negotiate and work with people. And this also explains why the polls keep talking about Left and Right blocs. No Israeli Political Party will get over 50% of the votes, over sixty 60 of the one hundred and twenty 120 Knesset seats. An Israeli Prime Minister must be skilled at juggling while walking a circus tightrope.

Tsipi Livni not only failed in her attempt to form a coalition, the breakup of her later political "marriage" to the Labor party showcased her lack of true political skills. Today Livni's claim that her policies are the right ones, but it's her lack of political power that is stopping her, just shows how little she understands. She has insufficient political power, because not enough people like her, and they don't agree with her policies. It certainly hasn't helped that she's with a different party each election.

It's rather ironic that the extreme Left Meretz party is the only one to have shown up to show support to Livni today. But the truth is that Tsipi Livni has burnt too many bridges in her political career to be missed by ordinary Israelis.

Tsipi Livni's still young. Will she join other failed politicians like Ehud Barak on the international lecture circuit? Will she write her memoirs? No doubt we'll be hearing from her. International Leftist "think tanks" love our rejected and failed "leaders." She won't starve; that's for sure.

National Unity Government? UGH!

I think we all know that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has really wanted a national unity government for a long, long time. I can see his point, but I'm happier with the status quo, and that's the same reason why he wants an expanded government coalition.

photo credit: Kobi Gideon/Flash90/Times of Israel

Bibi wants a national unity government, because his narrow, bare minimum 61 out of 120 MK coalition is too tight to allow him to make any policy changes. That's, davka, why I like it. I hate to think what he and Leftist Herzog have up their sleeves when putting them together.

Arutz 7 claims they're negotiating...

Report: Netanyahu offers Zionist Union nine gov't ministries
Unity gov't talks continue apace, as sources close to the prime minister say he's made a very generous offer to opposition leader Herzog.

Lately, Isaac Buji Herzog has been making statements that give the impression he has moved towards the Right, meaning Center. And since Bibi has been doing the same from the Right, their positions are meeting/similar in some cases. I guess they are now following the same game plan...

It means that next elections there will be nothing to choose between; both large parties will be pretty much the same. Granted that the MKs aren't, but they don't run the show.

If Herzog bites, then will Tsippi come along? And will Bennett remain in the coalition?

What do you think?

Bibi's Newest Government-- Can it Last?

I guess that the whole world is asking that question, and here in Israel, that'll be the theme of many newscasts and editorials until the government implodes. Israel doesn't have a betting country like England where lots of money was made and lost betting on the sex of Will and Kate's second child and the names of that child. Once Princess Charlotte Elizabeth Diana's name was revealed the big bets were on today's British Elections.

Binyamin Netanyahu

Miriam Alster/Flash 90

I wonder if those betting places are also taking bets on how long Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's coalition will last. All I can say is that I wouldn't buy tickets to travel abroad too far in advance, or I may miss voting, since we don't have absentee voting here in Israel. Two of my recent trips trips were timed to allow me to vote. Two and a half years ago I left just after voting, and this past visit I arrived home the day before elections.

Ironically, the last/final coalition agreement signed was with Bayit Yehudi's (Jewish Home) Naftali Bennett, who in both his Knesset campaigns stressed his aim to be part of Netanyahu's government. It seems that is the way Netanyahu works. He first makes the most difficult of the potential partners sign. And lastly he signs with his most natural allies. Finally he divides whatever is left with his own Likud Party. In his previous coalition he started by pulling a shocker and signing up Likud-traitor Tsipi Livni as Justice Minister. That brought in her personal loyalists, but she ended up being the one to destroy his government from within.

This time, Bibi, again went for a former Likudnik with high ambitions, Moshe Kahlon, first and created an offer Kahlon couldn't resist. I wonder if Kahlon will pull a Livni... IMHO, the two parties that Netanyahu can rely on for loyalty are the chareidim and Bennett's. Chareidim won't sit with Yair Lapid, and the feeling is mutual. Last time he allowed Bennett to force him into accepting Lapid and persecuting the chareidim. That was a dual mistake for both Bibi and Bennett. Lapid worked in tandem with Livni, learning how to get away with disloyalty, until Bibi finally disbanded the coalition and declared new elections.

Another time bomb in this coalition is Aryeh Deri's Shas, which already has a track-record of disloyalty. Ex-con Deri was davka given Finance, which I blogged about before. It really turns my stomach.

Here's how it stands now:

• Jewish Home: Chairman Naftali Bennett will be appointed Education Minister, while MKs Uri Ariel and Ayelet Shaked will be named Agricultural Minister and Justice Minister, respectively. Ariel will also control the Settlement Division and hold responsibility for implementing a program regulating Bedouins in the Negev. In addition, the party will choose a candidate for deputy defense minister.
• Kulanu: Party chairman Moshe Kahlon will serve as Finance Minister as well as chairman of the Housing Cabinet. MK Yoav Galant will beappointed Housing Minister, while a third person, apparently Kahlon associate Avi Gabbay, will be appointed Environment Minister. 
• Shas: Chairman Aryeh Deri will serve as Economy Minister, Negev and Galilee Development Minister, and possibly also Religious Affairs Minister, although this post may be given to another member of the party. In addition, Deri will appoint MK Yitzhak Cohen to head the Planning Administration within the Finance Ministry. Under Shas' agreement with Likud, which is subject to certain changes, Cohen may end up taking the post of Deputy Finance Minister. 
• United Torah Judaism: MK Yaakov Litzman will serve as Deputy Health Minister, while MK Moshe Gafni will chair the Knesset's Finance Committee. (Arutz 7)

There's still plenty left for the Likud to fight over, but many fear that Bibi will pull a fast one and accede to President Ruby Rivlin's pressure and establish a "unity government" which give the plums to Herzog and leave pretty much nothing of value to the Likud.

Nu, what do you think? Are you betting?

Israeli Elections, 2015, 5775, Dangerous Instability of "Unity" Government

I'm not at all surprised that it has been taking Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu a very long time to construct, negotiate his newest government coalition. His last one was an unstable disaster, and I am certain that he does not want to repeat such a scenario.

Vote counting in Israel, as complicated as it is, meaning you have to count all those little pieces of paper, record the numbers, add up each parties share and then calculate percentages, subtract the parties that didn't make the minimum and then recalculate to get the actual amount of Knesset seats per party.

Photo by Linda

That's child's play compared to what Bibi has been trying to do. He has to get enough like-minded party leaders to agree to work with him and compromise their ministerial dreams and promises to voters. And this year, we had the Passover holiday right in the middle of the limited time period Israeli law allocates to the possible Prime Minister. And during Passover, some party leaders won't do anything as mundane as negotiate for political gain.

And we must not forget that the previous, meaning outgoing government was a coalition nightmare, since two of the party leaders behaved unabashedly as opposition. They were Tsipi Livni and Yair Lapid. Netanyahu had no choice other than to fire them and call for new elections. OK, maybe he should have acted much, much sooner against Livni which would have given Lapid a lesson/warning, but he didn't.

So now, with the results of this more recent elections, he's pretty much left with a similar dilemma. At least he doesn't have Naftali Bennett insisting on bringing in Lapid as a "package," which meant he could not have the chareidi MKs.

But negotiations have not been going all that well for Netanyahu. And the pressure by President Ruby Rivlin to construct a monstrous "national unity government" has only been making things worse:

Israel needs a broad government as possible, given the current efforts to prevent the nuclearization of Iran, President Reuven Rivlin told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of Wednesday’s Holocaust Remembrance Day ceremony at Yad Vashem, a source close to Rivlin said on Thursday.
The source said Rivlin also had spoken about the need for a broad coalition with Zionist Union leader Isaac Herzog at an event last week in Ein Gedi. (Jerusalem Post)

The key slogan to Herzog's camp was "anyone but Bibi," so for him to join such a coalition without a very pricey "gift" would be problematic with his supporters. And the previous government fell apart due to conflicting aims of its supposed partners. IMHO a unity government would be a total and utter disaster. Isaac Herzog is no Menachem Begin who humbly joined the Labor Party's national unity government in 1967.

There very well may be more political stability and strength in a small, like-minded coalition, which is what some pundits say will be:

Meanwhile, Likud sources are preparing for the possibility that Netanyahu will present a 61-MK coalition that will comprise Likud, Kulanu, Habayit Hayehudi and the ultra-Orthodox parties. After the coalition is sworn in, Netanyahu could turn to Yisrael Beytenu or, alternatively, the Zionist Union. Complicating a potential deal with the Zionist Union (the Labor-Hatnuah joint list) is Labor leader Isaac Herzog's insistence on Tzipi Livni and her Hatnuah party being part of the government, something that Netanyahu adamantly opposes. (Israel Hayom)

Also take into account that Netanyahu may be faced with rebellion from his own Likud MKs if he makes a deal with the Leftist Herzog:

MKs David Amsalem, David Bitan, Jackie Levy, Miki Zohar and Abraham Naguise reacted to a Channel 1 report from Monday that Netanyahu held a secret meeting before Passover with Zionist Union leader Isaac Herzog to explore the possibility of a national unity government.
“We promised out voters a nationalist government,” Amsalem said. “We have to go with those we see eye to eye with ideologically, not with [Arab Zionist Union MK] Zouheir Bahloul.”
What is being described in the party as a “mini-rebellion” by parliamentarians who have not started work yet, came amid reports that Netanyahu was not succeeding in his attempt to woo Herzog. (Jerusalem Post)

As I've said before, I'm glad I'm not in Bibi's shoes.

Shabbat Shalom to All

Obama, The "New Pharaoh" Figure

The Biblical book of Shmot, Exodus opens by talking about a "new Pharaoh" who was an ignoramus when it comes to history.

ח  וַיָּקָם מֶלֶךְ-חָדָשׁ, עַל-מִצְרָיִם, אֲשֶׁר לֹא-יָדַע, אֶת-יוֹסֵף.

8 Now there arose a new king over Egypt, who knew not Joseph

There are so many things that United States President Barack Hussein Obama has in common with that ancient, evil historic figure.

In short, the Iranians are proven liars. They are also the world’s greatest exporter of Islamo-Nazi terror who have been murdering Americans and Israelis since 1979.
And Obama has just given them the money and legitimacy to continue their international killing spree. And let’s face it, Obama has guaranteed that Iran will become a nuclear power.
Until Israel intervenes, as she must and will. As she intervened in Iraq and Syria.
Even now, with international sanctions crippling their economy, the Iranians are spending millions on rocket systems and tunnels to attack Israel. By lifting sanctions, Obama enriches the mullahs and their genocidal program of annihilating Israel.
This is not complicated. The Iranians are liars and so is Barack Obama. (Seraphic Secret)

Nightmare

It seems so clear to me that Obama's policies are endangering world peace. This isn't just an "Israel problem." And there are plenty of Americans who are worried and angry, too.

The ink on the framework deal with Iran was barely dry when Sen. Tom Cotton began trying to tear up the agreement. "I'm going to do everything I can to stop these terms from becoming a final deal," the author of the now-infamous Senate Republican letter to Iran told CNN on Friday.
Cotton is hardly alone. The reaction from congressional Republicans to the nuclear deal has generally ranged from skeptical to furious. And in Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has openly said he's trying to "kill a bad deal." (vox.com)

There certainly isn't anything wrong with the fact that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Republican leaders for agreeing with one another.

Netanyahu and Speaker of the House John Boehner.Handout/Getty Images

There's more of a problem with the Israeli Left's (Herzog, Livni etc.) worship of Obama and the Democrats, which endangers not only the State of Israel but the security of the entire Western World and true democratic values.

What is This "Passover Thing" All About?

I'm going to take a quick break from Israeli Politics, World Peace, Terrorism etc. to let you know what is most important this week.

PASSOVER AKA PESACH פסח

First of all to try to clarify something very basic, the Jewish Holidays are celebrated according to the Jewish Calendar. That's why although Israeli Independence was declared on May 14, 1948, it's very rarely celebrated on that day. We celebrate it on, or around, the 5th of Iyyar on the Jewish Calendar. That can be in late April or later in May, and sometimes we don't celebrate it on the 5th of Iyyar if that date falls too close to Shabbat. Then it gets moved in order to prevent desecration of Shabbat which is a much holier day than Israeli Independence Day.

Passover doesn't get "moved."  It's always on the fifteenth 15th of the Jewish Month of Nissan, Miracles. Jewish Months are lunar, starting when there's barely a smidgen of a moon crescent. So the middle means that we're at full-moon. The Jewish Calendar is also adjusted so that Holidays always happen in the correct season, unlike the Moslem Calendar. Our Holidays are also connected to the agriculture of the Land, further proof that we have a Land, and it is in one place and one place only, HERE!

The Bible gives a pretty good description of the narrative of the Passover Story, but as my Bible Teacher, Yael Ziegler always says:

"The Tanach, Bible isn't a history book; it's a book of theology."

From what you see in Israel and many Jewish neighborhoods all over the world, you'd think that Passover is a celebration of kitchen hygiene, spring cleaning and then feasting. That's not actually what Passover is about. Nor is this supposed to be the official OCD Holiday, when those who always take cleaning and other things a few steps too far.

To summarize:

עבדים היינו במצרים, עתה עתה בני חורין עבדים היינו לפרעה
We were slaves to Pharaoh in Egypt and now we are free men.

The main thing is supposed to be our freeing ourselves from non-Jewish rule and values. That is the Chametz, the forbidden aspect of life for a Jew.

To return to the usual politics you find on this blog, it means that the campaign platform of Herzog-Livni's party which was to please the Americans, mainly the American President Barack Hussein Obama is 1,000% totally forbidden!! That is a prime example of what slavery to Pharaoh would be today.

And Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's constant and unabashed flip-flopping and tricky words about building for Jews all over the Land f Israel and creating a Palestinian sic state are also totally forbidden. That's the political chametz that must be burnt/scrubbed out of Israeli (and Jewish) policy and mentality.

We have been singing the song, "Avodim hayinu liparoh bamitzrayim, attoh, attoh binai chorin, עבדים היינו במצרים, עתה עתה בני חורין עבדים היינו לפרעה We were slaves to Pharaoh in Egypt and now,now we are free men" for thousands of years, but the truth is that we are still enslaved by foreign values and allow those who want our destruction to rule us.

And for too many, the food, the lightness of the kneidlach, the taste of the wine, the fashion of the clothes are more important than the actual words we are supposed to say and discuss at the Seder.

The real message of Passover for us to internalize and activate is that we are supposed to please G-d and G-d alone. That will make us free of foreign rule. We must do what is truly best for the Jewish People and the Jewish Land. Only then can we truly say:

Avodim hayinu

  עבדים היינו

We were slaves

PS Just in case I gave you the wrong impression, we are still supposed to do all of the ritual mitzvot, Torah Commandments concerning Passover preparation, cleaning the home of Chametz and using special Passover kitchen equipment etc.

I Sure Don't Envy Bibi Netanyahu!

Even though the Israelis voters spoke pretty clearly and do prefer Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for another term of office, giving his Likud Party many more seats than they gave Herzog-Livni's, assembling a coalition won't be easy for him. Besides Naftali Bennett who has made it clear that he firmly supports Netanyahu and hasn't leaked any demands, all of the other party leaders are making it clear that they aren't in Bibi's pocket and expect a hefty payment, meaning important cabinet position for them and most of their MK's.

Just a couple of years ago, Netanyahu invited Avigdor Lieberman's party, Yisrael Beitenu to run with Likud on a joint list, which ended up to the benefit of Lieberman and detriment to Likud. This year, on its own, Yisrael Beitenu has lost strength, but it still has the power to make or break a coalition. Lieberman is playing hard to get, insisting that although he's leading one one of the smallest parties in Knesset, he still deserves a "senior position."

All during the campaign my feeling was that the Likud could not count on former Likudnik Kahlon at all in terms of joining the coalition. He'd be like the classic "woman scorned," even though he was the one who left the ship. And now the rumor is that he's going to play Bennett's old role dragging in Lapid as a "third and very unwanted wheel" as a condition for his joining a Likud government.

"According to Israeli television, Kahlon will demand that Netanyahu also invite his rival and erstwhile finance minister Yair Lapid into the government." (Jerusalem Post)

Yair Lapid's total lack of loyalty and discipline was one of the reasons Netanyahu had to declare new elections. And it was also Lapid's rabidly anti-Chareidi conditions that Bibi accepted which seriously damaged Likud's relationship with the Chareidi parties. And Netanyahu needs those MKs to form a coalition.

Nothing here is going to be easy. Voting and counting the votes are long over. The results are clear. The Israeli electorate does not want a Herzog-Livni government, not even just Herzog. It wants to give Binyamin Netanyahu another term of office, but the political leaders, MKs elected last week mostly have their own egos as priority, not the good of the country nor the will of the people.

As I've written before, I predict instability, and I wonder if Netanyahu will succeed in this seemingly impossible task. If he doesn't, then Herzog will get a chance to form a government coalition. And no matter who finally succeeds I doubt that the government will last very long. There is also a possible scenario that no coalition will be formed, and we'll be voting again this coming summer.

And don't forget that the media's rumor mill has been talking of President Ruby Rivlin pushing Netanyahu and Herzog to come up with a "National Unity Government," like the one that had Shimon Peres and Yitzchak Shamir trading places in the Prime Minister's office.

What do you think?

Israeli Elections 2015, 5775, Prediction: Instability!

One doesn't have to be a great political pundit to predict political instability here (I will be home soon G-d willing) in Israel. The outgoing Likud government, Bibi's third, if I haven't lost track, lasted less than two years. The polls are showing that it is possible that either Likud or Labor-Livni are capable theoretically of forming a coalition.

Possible Netanyahu Phase 2: Likud (22), Bayit Yehudi (12), Kulanu (9), Shas (7), UTJ (7), Yisrael Beitenu (5), Yachad (4) =66
Possible Herzog Phase 2: Zionist Union (25), The Joint (Arab) List (12), Yesh Atid (12), Kulanu (9), Meretz (5) =63 (Jeremy)

If Netanyahu succeeds again, then the Left, media and politicians funded by the Americans again, will just repeat what they have been doing to weaken and harass him. And if the two-headed monster of Herzog and Livni succeed, their incompetence and pressure from the Right will make running the country much more difficult than their worst nightmares

All I can say is that hopefully this instability will be good for us and keep them, no matter who is Prime Minister from doing damage to the country, meaning destroying Jewish communities and homes

Has the Israeli Electorate Really Gone Loony Left?

I've been pretty shocked to see the latest polls, check Jeremy's site, which show the Left, Herzog-Livni, Lapid plus Arabs, pulling ahead of Likud and Bennett's Bayit Yehudi.

Dialog/Haaretz Poll: Zionist Union 24, Likud 21, The Joint (Arab) List 13, Yesh Atid 12, Bayit Yehudi 11, Kulanu 11, Shas 7

Panels/Maariv-103 FM Poll: Zionist Union 24, Lkud 21, Yesh Atid 13, The Joint Arab List 13, Bayit Yehudi 12, Kulanu 9

Here in New York, everyone wants Bibi and trusts Bibi and wishes he was running the White House.

I've only been in the states less than two weeks, what has been happening? Has the Israeli media really succeeded in brainwashing the public that Bibi-Likud is so awful? He's not perfect, but he's a lot better than Herzog-Livni. Watch Latma. The Herzog skit is best.

Will The Israeli Public Fall for American Campaign Tricks/Tactics? Israeli Elections, 2015, 5775, Prediction #4

Not for the first time, the Labor Party, recently renamed as "Zionist sic Camp," is using the services of an American Democratic Party campaign expert.

According to media reports, one of the prime architects of President Bill Clinton’s political victories, Paul Begala, is arriving in Israel to consult for the campaign of the Zionist Camp party led by Yitzhak Herzog. By all accounts, they can use that help.  (Newsweek)

You may remember that the dangerous and embarrassing fleeing that the IDF did from Southern Lebanon was the result of Ehud Barak's American Democratic Party campaign expert. Barak did manage to become Prime Minister after pledging to flee withdraw from Southern Lebanon, but the actual results and pictures of our soldiers running scared and abandoning valuable equipment as a parting gift to the terrorists there turned the stomachs and opinions of many Israelis against Barak.

There seems to be is a lot of American money and know-how being used in the anti-Netanyahu campaign. The V15 Campaign is American funded and aims to get Herzog-Livni in the Prime Minister's office anyway they can.

I'm sticking with the simplest and most moralistic take on all this.

AMERICAN INTERFERENCE in ISRAELI ELECTIONS is IMMORAL and 1000% CHUTZPADIK!

That's my take in the most benign words I can think of.

The election polls on Jeremy's site show a pretty steady 70 vs 50, Right Center vs Left for coalition possibilities, but that only hold true if Kahlon and the Chareidim stick with "Bibi only" as Prime Minister. Labor-Livni is counting on finding the price to convince them to crown Herzog-Livni. That's their aim. The only problem there is that there is very bad blood between the chareidim and Lapid. I doubt if Herzog-Livni has the political skills to achieve such a coalition.

We still have over a month until elections. Just like the last five minutes in sports, almost anything can happen!

Israeli Elections 2015, 5775, Predictions #2

First of all, for those who like following the election polls, I suggest that you keep checking Jeremy's site.

The trend seems pretty clear in all but one of the polls; the Likud is slowly pulling ahead of the oxymoron party aka Zionist Movement led by Isaac Herzog and Tsipi Livni.

Midgam/Yediot Poll: Zionist Union 25, Likud 24, Bayit Yehudi 12, United Arab List 12, Yesh Atid 11

Panels/Maariv/Jpost Poll: Likud 26, Zionist Union 22, Bayit Yehudi 13, United Arab List 12, Yesh Atid 11, UTJ 8

Teleseker/Walla Poll: Likud 26, Zionist Union 23, Bayit Yehudi 12, United Arab List 12, Yesh Atid 10, Koolanu 8

Maagar Mochot/Radio Poll: Likud 24, Zionist Union 24, Bayit Yehudi 14, United Arab List 12, Yesh Atid 11, Koolanu 8

Recent newscasts and the usual Leftist Israeli media have been bemoaning the failing or "non-existent" according to them, actual campaign of the Zionist Union-Labor and Tsipi. According to them, after the "swinging" announcement, much mocked by many, of the union of the veteran Labor Party and Tsipi Livni, born and raised in a noble Revisionist family, there hasn't been much of a campaign.

One of the news shows I watched ended with the wish that maybe they, the news editors, were premature in their analysis. There was hope that future polls would show much better results for Labor-Livni.

Last night heralded the return of Latma, the totally fantastic satire by Caroline Glick, finally returned. This time on the "big screen" of Chanel 1 TV.

Here's the trailer (sorry all Hebrew):

It ended with a song about Tsipi and the hapless Herzog. She was the tough male figure of the pair, and he wore the wedding gown. She picked him up on her motorcycle, drove off very dangerously. They have an accident, and when the police come they point to each other as the guilty driver. And then before Herzog even realizes that he has been "had," she's off calling "Yair, Yair..." I agree with that as a suitable reaction of Tsipi's the minute it's clear that she has destroyed or seriously damaged Labor. And that's why I call her the "political nymphomaniac."

There's a long time trend in the Israeli political scene which can't be stopped, because it's totally due to numbers. I'm talking demographics. Religious, traditional and of course chareidi families are larger than the secular ones. Official statistics also show the size of Arab families shrinking. I see that in my Arab customers, Yafiz, Sha'ar Binyamin.

For these 2015, 5775 elections, add to that the so far weak campaign from the Left, based on gimme! and ignoring security. They will have to work much, much harder if they want to win. Numbers are against them.

Israeli Elections 2015, 5775, Predictions #1

As the upcoming elections get closer, we're seeing a very definite trend. More and more people who aren't happy with Binyamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister are looking at the alternative, some sort of "rotation" between Loony Left Isaac Herzog and political nymphomaniac, party hopper, Tsipi Livni, and they are realizing that as bad as Bibi is, he's heaven in comparison to those two.

Tzipi Livni and Isaac Herzog hold a joint press conference in Tel Aviv on December 10, 2014, announcing a unity deal. (Flash90)

Read more: With the Herzog-Livni merger, an opposition materializes | The Times of Israel http://www.timesofisrael.com/with-the-herzog-livni-merger-an-opposition-materializes/#ixzz3QkCPa0fA
Follow us: @timesofisrael on Twitter | timesofisrael on Facebook

Political pundits are seeing it very clearly.

BIBI SURGES IN ISRAELI POLLS

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is enjoying a surge in the latest opinion polls of Israeli voters. The Jerusalem Post reports that its latest poll shows Bibi’s party, the Likud, is leading the race for the first time in weeks. Other polls agree, and show the Likud leading its rival, the Zionist Union, which is a combination of the Labor and Hatnua parties. (Breitbart)

The numbers and poll trends are getting clearer. Here are the two latest polls as reported on Jeremy's Knesset Insider:

Panels/Knesset Channel Poll: Likud 25, Zionist Union 24, Bayit Yehudi 13, United Arab List 12, Yesh Atid 11

and

Dialog/Haaretz Poll: Likud 25, Zionist Union 23, Bayit Yehudi 14, United Arab List 12, Yesh Atid 9

No doubt that the Likud will use the threat of the Herzog-Livni "alternative" as their main campaign.

Whose Expertise in International Terrorism Do You Trust More, Obama or Netanyahu?

The American and Israeli Leftist won't let the issue die. They are campaigning hard against Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. They don't want to see him in office any longer. The fact that the Republican John Boehner invited Netanyahu to speak to Congress about the Iranian nuclear threat, without the approval of United States President Barack Hussein Obama has them livid and loaded with weapons to use against Bibi.

Netanyahu is likely to note that a deal that keeps Iran on the edge of nuclear capability will ignite an arms race among America’s longtime Arab allies: oil-rich Sunni gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which fear Tehran just as much as does ­Netanyahu.
In this, he would echo one of the president’s own former military commanders, retired Marine Gen. James Mattis who says the options will be “very bleak” if Iran comes away from any US deal with its nuclear program intact.
Apart from the president’s desperation to produce some policy triumph in the Middle East, he is no doubt thinking Iran will be an ally in the fight against the Sunni terrorists such as ISIS.
Talk about rose-colored glasses: Sen. John McCain rightly calls the idea that a deal with Iran means we’ll all be working ­together ­“delusional.”
In recent weeks alone, Iranian-backed forces have taken the capital of Yemen; Iranian-backed Hezbollah has killed two Israeli soldiers; Iran’s influence in Iraq grows while America’s declines; while in Iran itself the nation is about to put a Washington Post reporter on trial.
So forget Netanyahu the messenger. Far more critical is the timely message about Iran he will deliver. (NY Post)

Yes, in Israel there's an election campaign going on. The Israeli Left, backed by American funding, is pulling no punches in their campaign against the Likud and its leader Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. This is a street fight, not one of those highly regulated Olympic wrestling or judo matches.

Deputy ministers Tzipi Hotovely and Ophir Akunis, MKs Miri Regev and Yariv Levin, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s attorney David Shimron presented evidence connecting the Zionist Union to V15 (Victory in 2015), an organization working to bring down the government, which has received funding from non-Israeli citizens S. Daniel Abraham and Daniel Lubetzky.
They spoke about V15’s funding from One Voice, which has received contributions from multiple foreign governments, organizations and non-Israeli citizens. They said Zionist Union candidates Yoel Hasson and Danny Atar and former Labor MKs Ephraim Sneh, Colette Avital, and Rabbi Michael Melchior were on One Voice’s advisory board...“This NPO scandal is worse than the first, because this time no one can say they didn’t know,” Levin said. “We are witnessing criminal behavior by Herzog and [his Zionist Union No. 2, Tzipi] Livni. When the first NPO scandal happened, Livni was in the Likud and she said the party was facing criminals. Then she stood for the rule of law. Now she stands beside Herzog in silence.”
Herzog chose to remain silent during the investigation of the 1999 NPO scandal. Regev dared him to go to police now and testify.

Many of us in Israel are more concerned about Israeli security and sovereignty than the issues Herzog, Livni and other Leftists are bringing up against Netanyahu and the Likud. I speak for many Israelis when I say that kowtowing to American demands in order to attempt to get on the "good side" of the virulently antipathetic Obama is not what we want Israel to do.

The true story of American-Israeli relations is checkered at best. Rarely has there been a United States President who truly felt a warm friendship to Israel. There was no American aid to Israel until after the June, 1967, Six Days War. I remember that war very well. I wasn't a child. Israel didn't have a single ally in June, 1967. The world stood by and watched expecting the three Arab armies, Egypt, Syria and Jordan, to easily defeat us.

It was a continuation of the attitude of the world during the Nazi rise to power and subsequent Holocaust. World War Two had nothing whatsoever to do with saving European Jewry. It was to stop the Nazi invasion and conquering of Europe and Great Britain.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is an expert on International Terrorism. That was his field before going into Israeli politics. What was United States President Barack Hussein Obama before going into American politics? "Community organizer?" Netanyahu didn't need any "affirmative action" to get into M.I.T. when competition for its few elite places was its fiercest while "baby boomers" were most numerous.

The American People should be happy that they have politicians willing to listen to hard news. The Iranian nuclear danger is international, not just targeting Israel.

Likud, Bad Polls Can be Good News

Reuters

I'd say that the "bad news polls" of late are playing in the hands of the Likud campaign strategists. The latest polls are giving Labor-Livni more seats than Likud.

The combined Labor-Hatnua list would win three more Knesset seats than the Likud, 25 to 22, if the election were held now, according to a Panels Research poll taken for The Jerusalem Post and its Hebrew sister publication,Maariv Sof Hashavua. (Jerusalem Post)

One of the key planks in the Likud platform always is a warning that if you want Netanyahu as Prime Minister, which according to the same polls a pretty steady half the population does want, voting for any other party will endanger that.

Panels has been asking whether respondents want Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to remain in his post after the election. In Thursday’s poll, 58% said “no,” up from 51% two weeks ago but below the peak of 66% on December 11.
Fifty-four percent said Netanyahu represented Israel well in France last this week, 32% said he did not, and 14% had no opinion. A majority said it was right of Netanyahu to call for French Jews to make aliya, even if the French government does not approve of such statements.

So I have no doubt that the scare tactics of the Herzog-Livni two headed monster will dominate their campaign. Note that the Jerusalem Post purposely didn't give the percentage of support the polls showed for Herzog or Livni. This is no doubt because they were so low that it would show the obvious fact that the vast majority of Israelis do not want to see either of those two in power.  Bibi's campaign staff isn't stupid, and I trust that they will stress that in their Knesset Elections campaign.

Herzog & Livni

PM Binyamin Netanyahu

Versus



And for the umpteenth time, I'll just remind you that the Israeli political election system is rather complex.

• The system is strictly proportional representation.
• We vote for parties and accept the list of candidates in the order set beforehand.
• The President of Israel (who is not a policy maker) consults with the various party leaders after elections to see whom (or which party) they prefer to lead the country. 
• Then the President offers that party's leader the chance to form (negotiate) a ruling coalition. 
• If he/she succeeds, then the new government is formed. 
• If not, then another party's leader is given the chance.

Don't forget that elections will be on March 17 which is almost two months from now. And a lot can happen before then.

Israeli 5775, 2015 Election News

According to the polls and pundits, Tsipi Livni will probably have an encore, repeat of previous election results. She'll be part of the top vote-getting party, but will be left out of the ruling coalition.

According to the poll, the Herzog-Livni list would receive 23 mandates, while the Likud would receive 21 mandates.
Nafatli Bennett's Bayit Yehudi would come in with the third most votes, according to the survey, with 16 mandates.
Yair Lapid's party, which had fallen to single digits in a number of recent polls, appears to have recovered some voters, with poll respondents giving the centrist party 11 mandates.
Newly-minted party Kulanu, under the leadership of former Likud minister Moshe Kahlon, would receive 9 mandates, the poll found. (Jerusalem Post)

Arutz 7 tells more:

The daily deluge of polls for the March 17 Knesset elections continue on Tuesday, with a Channel 10 poll showing the joint Labor-Hatnua list and Likud still neck and neck, with Labor just slightly ahead.
The poll gives Labor 22 mandates and Likud 21. Jewish Home would get 17, and Yesh Atid gets ten mandates according to the findings.
Former Likud minister Moshe Kahlon's new Kulanu party and Yisrael Beytenu each get nine seats, and the hareidi United Torah Judaism would get seven.
Radical leftist Meretz and the United Arab List each get six, while the Arab communist Hadash party would get five. The results may be rendered not relevant as United Arab List, Hadash together with Balad are apparently in the final stages of forming a joint Arab list...
In the same poll, respondents were asked who is most fitting for the role of prime minister.
Current Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu was preferred by 38%, whereas Labor head Yitzhak Herzog was preferred by 32%.
In terms of who would best deal with the security threats on Israel, 30% said Netanyahu would be most appropriate, whereas 22% preferred Yisrael Beytenu head Avigdor Liberman and 21% chose Herzog.

That so famously happened when Tsipi led Kadima. The Israeli political system provides a "test" for potential Prime Ministers in that they must prove their leadership savvy and skills by successfully crafting and negotiating a coalition of partners. This may be confusing for people new to Israel, because winning the most votes or Knesset seats isn't the end of the electoral process here. It's just the beginning.

The Israeli media is very Leftist and goes all out, all the time, to promote Left wing policies and politicians. That's how they do well in Knesset Elections, but when it comes to forming a government, their leaders fail.  The Israeli public is far to the Right of the media, and since Right wing politicians have to work much harder to get elected, they develop more political skills than the princes on the Left.

In recent years, the two most skillful politicians have been Binyamin Bibi Netanyahu and Ehud Olmert, who honed in his talents when on the Right of the political spectrum. Olmert has since been proven crooked as well as talented, and that leaves Bibi to lead the field. The Herzog-Livni team hasn't much of a chance to head the Israeli Government.

2015, 5775, Israeli Elections Polls and Pundits Trying to Control Results

With all I've been reading about the election polls showing how the loony Left Isaac Herzog, Tsipi Livni, Yair Lapid and political chameleon Moshe Kahlon can win, I wonder why we should bother voting. The poll pundits have it all choreographed and finalized without the expense of a Knesset Elections campaign.

As we've known forever, the Israeli Media is rigidly Left and always has been.

The latest headlines say that Prime Minister Binyamin Bibi Netanyahu's Likud may only make third place if...

...Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid and former welfare minister Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu party run together in the March 17 election, according to a Panels Research poll taken Wednesday for The Jerusalem Post and its Hebrew sister newspaper Maariv Sof Hashavua. (Jerusalem Post)

Yes, that's possible. The pollsters and the media are working hard to push the Leftist parties into the correct alliances to get the results they crave.

Lapid and Kahlon have both denied they intend to run together. But Lapid has said he would explore multiple possibilities about running in conjunction with other parties.
If they do not run together, Labor would win 23 seats, the Likud 21, Bayit Yehudi 16, Yesh Atid and Kulanu 10 each, Yisrael Beytenu eight, United Torah Judaism and Meretz seven each, two Arab parties five each, and Shas and former Shas chairman Eli Yishai’s Ha’am Itanu party four each.
The poll of 507 respondents representing a statistical sample of the adult population found that 27 percent of respondents remain undecided.
Among those who call themselves centrist, the figure is even higher: 39%. The survey’s margin of error is 4.3 percentage points.

photo credit:YONATAN ZINDEL/POOL

But there's a very important historical fact they try to ignore. Two elections ago, Kadima, then led by Tsipi Livni got more seats than Likud; however, Livni was incapable of putting together a coalition. That's how Bibi became Prime Minister.

Israeli governments aren't completely decided by Knesset Elections. Political parties must join together in a coalition to form a government. The art of creating and controlling such a coalition isn't easy. It takes political smarts that are hard to come by.

Netanyahu, who is labeled as Right but promotes himself as Center, has managed to craft coalitions three times already. Last time he made some bad mistakes. He ran with Avigdor Lieberman's party which weakened his Likud. And he found himself forced to take on Yair Lapid because of pressure by Naftali Bennett. It seems that this time he is letting Bennett take on Lieberman's "old job" as "the big mouth on the Right." Bennett has been campaigning against a Palestinian state, while Bibi is committed to the "Two State Solution." That puts Bibi's Likud in the Center where he thinks he should be. But I wonder how many voters want a parve/neutral party that doesn't give firm leadership.

Many Right voters are sick and tired of voting Likud and getting Leftist policies. And more are realizing that voting Bennett will get just Likud "yes men."

We still have almost three months until the elections. Maybe the voters will surprise the pollsters. 

Israeli Elections, 2015, 5775, In With New and Out With Old

MK Binyamin Ben-Eliezer AP/Channel 2 News

MK Binyamin Ben-Eliezer of Labor has joined the list of veteran politicians who have decided to call it quits. He joins Limor Livnat and Gidon Sa'ar, both of Likud, who are off to make new careers for themselves. Considering Ben-Eliezer aka Fuad's bad health, he may just try to enjoy retirement.

These resignations open up opportunities for new faces, especially if the polls are correct. Both Labor and Likud are expected to get more seats in the upcoming elections.

The unabashedly Leftist Israeli media is hyping the "political marriage" of the lackluster Labor Party with Tsipi Livni's diminishing "Movement," trying to get the voting public to accept them as the ruling party. The media hopes that newcomer Moshe Kahlon's "Kulanu" will be sufficiently anti-Likud to join them in a coalition along with la-la Left Lapid and what remains of his "Yesh Atid."

Photo by Tomer Appelbaum

Kahlon, like Livni, was originally in the Likud. To be honest, I don't know much about him, but one thing for sure. His party will get a lot of votes, and afterwards most voters will be disappointed. That has happened to all the other well-hyped, newly invented Center parties that pop up like weeds for every Israeli Election. Do you remember the Pensioners, the Free Center, Raful's party, Kadima, Yesh Atid, etc?

We have a good few months until elections. There will be many more posts about it. In the meantime, it's almost Shabbat. Have a peaceful and restful one, G-d willing.