Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Israeli Elections 2015, 5775, Predictions #1

As the upcoming elections get closer, we're seeing a very definite trend. More and more people who aren't happy with Binyamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister are looking at the alternative, some sort of "rotation" between Loony Left Isaac Herzog and political nymphomaniac, party hopper, Tsipi Livni, and they are realizing that as bad as Bibi is, he's heaven in comparison to those two.

Tzipi Livni and Isaac Herzog hold a joint press conference in Tel Aviv on December 10, 2014, announcing a unity deal. (Flash90)

Read more: With the Herzog-Livni merger, an opposition materializes | The Times of Israel
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Political pundits are seeing it very clearly.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is enjoying a surge in the latest opinion polls of Israeli voters. The Jerusalem Post reports that its latest poll shows Bibi’s party, the Likud, is leading the race for the first time in weeks. Other polls agree, and show the Likud leading its rival, the Zionist Union, which is a combination of the Labor and Hatnua parties. (Breitbart)
The numbers and poll trends are getting clearer. Here are the two latest polls as reported on Jeremy's Knesset Insider:

Panels/Knesset Channel Poll: Likud 25, Zionist Union 24, Bayit Yehudi 13, United Arab List 12, Yesh Atid 11


Dialog/Haaretz Poll: Likud 25, Zionist Union 23, Bayit Yehudi 14, United Arab List 12, Yesh Atid 9

No doubt that the Likud will use the threat of the Herzog-Livni "alternative" as their main campaign.


YMedad said...

did I miss the "prediction"?

Anonymous said...

How can anybody take serious a person, which under the guise of writing a serious piece uses language like that " Loony Left Isaac Herzog and political nymphomaniac, party hopper, Tsipi Livni". This is not serious and looks like and smells like paid Likud propaganda.

Sammy Finkelman said...

The "prediction" is that the "Zionist Union" and parties that assumed to support Herzog and Livni as Prime Minister(s) will get fewer votes than now show in the polls, and Likud and parties that are believed to affiliate with it will get so many votes so that there will be no question as to who will lead the coalition.

Votes will drift toward parties that are more certain to join a coalition with Likud, and Likud itself.

The colorful language is only a way of giving an opinion. Party hopping is only said because of opposition to what Livni stands for - this might be criticized in another person.

Winston Churchill also was a party hopper over the long run.

Batya said...

thanks Sammy, got it
Remember Livni's disloyalty to the parties and coalition she had joined.

Sammy Finkelman said...

I meant this might NOT be something criticized in another person.

In and of itself, party switching it is not necessarily something bad, and in fact might indicate somebody trying to get things done, originality, independence or something else.

Some of the best people in politics switched parties.

The way it is used here, I think it means you don't think this is the case with Livni. Or if there is consistency, it's all for the wrong things. She's been for plaing hopes in negotiations, as if it were an act of will for Israel, since at least 2005.

does she still claim U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, ending the Hezbollah war in 2006, was a big success for Israel?

Batya said...

I've never heard Livni reflecting on the past. Her party switches are always for pure ambition, not idealistic ideology.