Hamas War

Showing posts with label Yair Lapid. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Yair Lapid. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 1, 2022

Israeli Elections 2022: The Coalition Competition Will be Fierce

 

Spare Ballots if Needed


Here's the Choice of Political Parties

The previous elections were about a year and a half ago, which seems like ages, considering that the previous few were closer together. Most of those elections ended without coalitions. As I've written a number of times, Bibi Netanyahu and his merry band discovered an easy way to power--- being the interim Prime Minister/Government. 

Well, now Likud hasn't been in power for over a year. For them to return, no matter how many MKs they have, they need to supplement the number so it reaches over sixty to have a majority coalition. But now, the cat's out of the bag, and sitting Prime Minister Yair Lapid can play the same trick if he convinces enough Knesset Members not to join with Netanyahu.

This should be fun to watch.

You may be wondering why I'm not cheering on a specific party or leader. Well, like many Israelis I'm not very enamored with the choices. It's like watching a football or basketball match when you just want to see their skills, and you don't care which team wins.

That may sound strange to you. We are discussing the government which has power over security, growth etc. I'm feeling rather jaded about it. I just keep remembering the excitement when certain people became Prime Minister, and then how they surprised us with policies totally opposed to their platform/ideology, totally opposed to mine, too. So, we'll see what happens and I'll decide issue by issue and pray very hard.

Thursday, September 1, 2022

Why Not To Vote Likud and Its Puppet Parties


My antipathy to the Likud is very old, almost as old as the party itself, which is strange considering my Betar background and has nothing to do with today's politics, or does it? 

Our aliyah, fifty-two 52 years ago this week was very connected to Menachem Begin's Herut Party and Betar, especially considering that we spent the greater part of our first year living in Maon Betar, the Betar Youth/Student Hostel, now known as the Plugat Hakotel building in Jerusalem's Old City. Like our friends from Betar, we joined, and are still members of, Kupat Cholim Leumit, and we became dues paying members of Herut, the Revisionist/Betar party. Herut joined with the Liberal Party making Gush Cherut Liberalim, aka GaHaL, which evolved into Likud.

In 1970, after over twenty years of independence, there was only one dominant party, Mapai/Labor, Leftist, secular and socialist. The National Religious Party, which besides having a few rabbis and a lot of kippot had similar policies and joined them religiously in their coalition governments and the Rabbinate. Only during the time of emergency just before the 1967 Six Days War had Menachem Begin and Gahal been invited to join the government.

Cracks in the close political partnership between Mapai/Labor and the NRP began to surface after the great miraculous 1967 Six Days War victory. The government and its agricultural monopoly chose which land to settle only according to financial export advantages probably chosen by Agrexco which was the export monopoly, the Golan for growing fruit and the warmer Jordan Valley and northern Sinai where melons and summer vegetables could be grown for export in the winter. The National Religious Party and its Bnai Akiva youth movement began pushing to return to its former kibbutzim in Gush Etzion, which had been destroyed by the Arabs in the War for Independence. In addition, there were attempts to settle Hebron and various locations in the Shomron because of their Jewish/Biblical importance. The government opposed such settlements and gave in on just a symbolic few.

Post Six Days War the IDF and government/military leaders were cocky and overconfident. The "conceptziah" was that the Arabs would never dare attack us again after our great victory, so we weren't at all prepared for the surprise attack on Yom Kippur 1973. After a few very difficult weeks and many dead, wounded and captured Israelis, Gd gave us another miraculous victory. 

The Israeli electorate was shell-shocked, mourning and talked of not celebrating the upcoming Independence Day, but they voted for their usual parties, returning the veteran/traditional coalition to power in the elections soon after the war. Israelis have trouble changing political choices. 

Polls had been showing more of the same for the 1977 elections, but when the votes were counted the pundits were totally shocked to discover that Menachem Begin's Likud had gotten the most votes. His longtime supporters were overjoyed expecting government support of new Jewish communities all over Judea and Samaria, besides the exiting ones in the Golan, Jordan Valley and Sinai. Instead of annexing all the land liberated in 1967 and promoting building Jewish communities all over, Begin crossed Mapai's redlines and offered Anwar Sadaat a Judenrein Sinai as a peace deal cheered on by US President Jimmy Carter. The homeless Jews from the Sinai were offered new communities in Gush Katif, and then a few decades later, another Likud Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon, destroyed Gush Katif making a new generation of Jewish pioneers homeless. As a Likud election campaign slogan stated: "Only the Likud can..."

Here we are almost a half a century later... The religious public has changed; the National Religious Party is no more, though the backroom boys keep trying to repackage and resurrect it. We began to see more and more religious MKs, who were members of other political parties, since religious Israelis had begun to see themselves as Israelis first, free to choose a political party by ideology. I see this as a maturation of Israeli society. And on the Left, today the Labor Party is an anorexic shadow of its former self barely getting the minimum votes for Knesset representation. 

During the decade plus that Binyamin Bibi Netanyahu has ruled the Likud and served as Prime Minister, the chareidi political parties give Bibi their full support in exchange for the Rabbinate. Non-chareidi Torah observant Jews are blocked. This concerns, Kashrut, conversion, marriage and many other crucial issues that affect us all. 

The bottom line here is that most Likud voters actually don't like this chareidi monopoly on the Rabbinate, though they support and strengthen it with their Likud vote. The Bennett-Lapid coalition gave Matan Kahane the Ministry for Religion which controls the Rabbinate. I have no doubt that most Likud voters, if they bother checking what he has been doing, really would support him much more than the chareidi control.

Very important is to consider whether or not Binyamin Netanyahu's Likud actually promotes Right wing policies. The truth is that it doesn't, and I for one am not surprised, because I heard Bibi announce that he wouldn't. At the International Jewish Bloggers Conference in 2008, Netanyahu was the guest speaker and told us of his plans for when he would be reelected Prime Minister. I was standing barely a meter from him and heard him very clearly state that:

 "as Prime Minister I will be Centrist."

Netanyahu's stated reason was that he thinks that a "national leader" should have a policy in the middle. Whatever hope and loyalty to Likud that had somehow survived Begin and Sharon's destructive policies was totally wiped out by that, as far as I'm concerned. We've seen since then how when Bibi's campaigning for votes he loves the Right label, but if you look at his policies, riddled with building freezes, Jewish community and housing destruction. 

Most recently we all witnessed the despicable act of ordering his MKs to vote against the Settlement Law, because Bibi and his cronies, Likud and Chareidi MKs, have only one aim-- returning to power. They don't care whom they harm or bribe (with promises of "safe" places on the Likud list) as they do it. Their only principle is preserving their power, and they want to be back in the drivers seat.

Davka, I consider the criminal investigation of Bibi to be a political witch hunt, and I think the street demonstrations telling him to resign to be antidemocratic. There's a legal political process in a democracy, and top office should never be chosen by the police or the street. We vote.

I do see a distortion/loophole that Netanyahu has exploited to preserve power, which goes against the spirit of the law, though it's technically legal. Until Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid put together their coalition, Bibi had established a pattern of serial/perpetual power. It looked like he'd be the "interim" or  caretaker Prime Minister forever alternating with elections that didn't result in MKs who could agree on a coalition. Look carefully at what had been happening before the Bennett-Lapid agreement.

Sorry this is so long; it's the longest blog post I've written in years. I suggest clicking the links to give you more information. I welcome your questions and comments.

Thursday, July 14, 2022

Thankfully Not All Israelis Embarrassed Themselves Over Biden's Visit

Everyone who heard that I would be in Jerusalem today thought I had lost my mind; even I had doubts. But since cousins were in from the states, and this was their only day...

Why was this considered a ridiculous irresponsible day to be in Jerusalem?

Street closings for the Biden visit were expected to wreck havoc in Jerusalem. Well, that may have been true in some neighborhoods, but not the routes I and my cousins would be taking to meet each other. 

Israel always goes overboard when top American officials show up, and I'm not just talking about closing major roads and highways. Prime Minister Lapid and President Herzog were smiling so broadly, you'd think they just won the lottery, Nobel Peace Prize and had been crowned Kings of The World.

The so-called pundits on television stupidly took Biden's speech seriously confusing a "speech" with policy. Every time an American President comes they make the same idiotic mistake, and that includes the visits of Clinton, the Bushes and even Obama. Each president, no matter how little they think of Israel comes armed with an amazing pro-Israel speech. And each time we hear the same dumb commentary by pundits and reporters who think that these "I love Israel" speeches are actual policy. It's all cosmetics, like hair dye and plastic surgery.  

The young and memory challenged in the media either forgot or never knew and didn't research that it was davka Biden who was nasty to then Prime Minister Menachem Begin. Besides that, the United States has never really supported the State of Israel when we were in danger. To be honest, I don't care, since Gd's help from our prayers is what we really need. I'd just prefer that our government officials understand it, besides not making up stories about "friendship." We're not allies. We can't rely on the USA. The State Department makes real policy there. Donald Trump overrode it in favor of Israel, consistently going against State Department demands. That's a major reason why he is so hated in Washington DC. But that's another story.

Davka, today I walked through both the Arab shuq in the Old City and the Machaneh Yehuda Market besides taking the lightrail. 




It was business as usual in the Jerusalem I visited. There was no sign of the Biden visit until I got on the bus going home, and the driver was listening to the radio. But I don't pick fights with the bus drivers... I just took out my book and read it.

Thursday, June 30, 2022

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid Switch Hats

I AM JUST STATING FACTS

Unlike when Bibi Netanyahu had promised Benny Gantz to "switch hats" and hand over the office of Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett kept his promise to Yair Lapid and followed the coalition agreement they had made just over a year ago. Within a few hours Yair Lapid will be Prime Minister of the State of Israel, and Naftali Bennett will be at his side helping him get acquainted with his new position, again unlike Bibi's abominable behavior a year ago.

Outgoing Prime Minister Naftali Bennett

Last night Prime Minister Naftali Bennett spoke to the nation on television and internet, since live TV can be accessed there, too. He announced that he's taking a leave of absence from politics and does not plan to run in the next Knesset elections on November 1, after summer vacation and Jewish Holidays. I have no idea what his plans are, but I'm sure that his family will enjoy the relative quiet after this difficult year. Bennett is extremely wealthy, so he doesn't need to look for work.

Minister of the Interior Ayelet Shaked will head Yamina at this point. I'm not making any predictions nor quoting rumors. When there's real news, I'll probably blog my opinion. As I've written before, I considered the coalition to be  wonderful attempt for Israelis of all stripes to work together, and it reminds me of the Holy Ketoret.

My husband and I made aliyah in 1970 when the Labor Party and Histadrut held all power in the State of Israel. The country hadn't yet fully absorbed the broad implications of the 1967 Six Days War victory. The IDF took credit for the miracle, and then three years later on Yom Kippur the Arabs attacked, and it took a too long and too many Jewish lives to push them back. Even after that it took almost four years for Labor to lose power and the Likud to take over. Too many Israelis couldn't imagine any other party and leadership running the country... Sounds familiar; doesn't it? I see deja vu. Been there done that. Within a few years Likud as we now know it will be history or a shadow of its present self, just like Labor today...

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

Ketoret Government Incinerated By Political Prostitutes

No doubt some people won't like or get this title.

Ketoret Government:

The Bennett-Lapid coalition, which did manage to govern for a year and pass budgets is made of rather conflicting political parties. These parties decided to look for what they agree on for the common good. This reminds me of Ketoret:

“God said to Moses: Take fragrances such as balsam, onycha, galbanum, and pure frankincense, all of the same weight, as well as other fragrances. Make the mixture into incense, as compounded by a master perfumer, well-blended, pure and holy.” (Ex. 30:34-5)

Some of the ingredients of Ketoret are sweet and others bitter. There may even be some which are poisonous, but together they are holy. The Ketoret was necessary for prayer in the Mishkan Tabernacle and later in the Holy Temple. 

Watching the coalition MKs Right, Left and Center, Jews and Arabs working together reminds me of the Holy Ketoret. Honestly I would have preferred a more ideologically Right coalition, but the MKs weren't willing. Bibi and his henchmen held tight to the mafia of Likud and chareidi MKs, plus the rabble-rouser Right prefer the bullhorn to the nitty gritty of administration. 

As the Bennett-Lapid coalition was sworn in a year ago, we heard two things. The expert political pundits predicted that the coalition wouldn't last a month, and the opposition showed their true antidemocratic stripes by cursing and mocking, rather than accepting their defeat.

I have no doubt that Bibi Netanyahu could have cobbled together a viable coalition if he had wanted to, but he and his mafia had begun to enjoy the perks of office as "interim," "caretaker" government, which can't be voted out of office. They just keep calling periodic elections, no checks and balances, just POWER.

This past year Yemina MKs, not part of the strong Ketoret ideology were targeted and "urged" to break from their party. Instead of acting like moral people, they took their "seats" with them. Here in Israel there aren't personal elections. Those of us who voted Yemina got our votes stolen. If they wanted to leave, they should have resigned their Knesset seats. And because the fault of the government's demise was from them, we now have Yair Lapid as Prime Minister. Bennett didn't do any dirty trick like Netanyahu did to Gantz.

It's going to take a few more years to truly push Binyamin Bibi Netanyahu and his mafia out of power. Remember, or if you're too young- please listen, it took almost six full years after the horror of the "conceptizia" which almost caused our defeat in the Yom Kippur War for Labor to be voted out of office. Gd willing it won't take so long for Israelis to realize the dangers of the Bibi-chareidi rule. 

Praying...

Back to Elections

Tuesday, February 1, 2022

Letter in The Jerusalem Post

Great Show

I enjoyed reading Lahav Harkov's interview with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. I've been his supporter all along and first met him when he was head of Moetzet YESHA. 

There were little things I noticed in the interview, like using the correct craft/verb when describing his kippah as crocheted. But his politics is more important. It's amazing that he managed to put together this unlikely coalition especially when his "dowry" is miniscule. He's a full generation younger than Bibi, which shouldn't be forgotten. Bennett doesn't need to work, having made his fortune very, very young in hitech. 

Bennett doesn't claim to have a Right wing government, but policies aren't very different from decades of Likud. Please don't forget that there's hardly a Likud Prime Minister, if any, who didn't destroy Jewish communities, and that started with Menachem Begin. Bibi was no different. I remember hearing him say that although he talks "Right" he believes that as Prime Minister he needs to be in the Center. So I don't miss him and his mafia.

Bennett seems to have good control over the various issues Israel faces. I'm more nervous about when Lapid takes over. We'll see what happens. On the whole, I'm happy that the Bibi mafia is out. They found a way to stay in power "safely" by being perpetual "interim" governments sans coalition. Bennett and his coalition partners out-maneuvered them by doing the "impossible." Remember that the pundits claimed it wouldn't last a month....

I've been following Israeli politics closely for over half a century, and it's a great show!

Batya Medad, Shiloh



Monday, June 14, 2021

Guide To The Perplexed, Israeli Political System Simplified


Prime Minister Naftali Bennett 

After over half a century in Israel, I have a pretty good idea how the political system works. I don't think it's like many others. I'm going to try to simplify it here, aiming to say how it's run in positive rather than negative sentences/points. I will try to use easy to understand terminology.

  • The Israeli Political System is a parliamentary democracy.
  • The Israeli Political System has only proportional representation.
  • Israeli citizens vote for political parties*.
  • The 120 Knesset seats are proportionately divided among the political parties that received a legally set percentage of the votes and more.
  • After votes are fully counted, the political parties negotiate a coalition government, because no single party has ever gotten a majority of the Knesset seats.
  • The Prime Minister is chosen/voted in by the majority of Knesset Members who generally are in the political parties that have joined the coalition. 
  • Coalition negotiations decide which participating political parties get which ministries, committee chairmanships and other important positions.
  • When a government falls and new elections are called, the sitting government continues until after a new coalition is voted in.**
*Each political party has a numbered list of candidates who become MKs according to election results.
**That interim government cannot be voted out. Netanyahu had spent the last few years as interim Prime Minister, perfectly safe from losing his position as long as no new coalition run by another party could be formed.

Benny Gantz, Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett

I hope that this explanation is clear. If you have any questions, please write in the comments. 

This isn't the place/post to complain that YOU think it's a dumb system. The purpose of this post is just to explain the existing  Israeli Political System.

Wednesday, June 9, 2021

Just Call Me A Cockeyed Optimist or a Pragmatic Extremist


For the past few years, the State of Israel hasn't had a stable government. We've been bouncing and rolling from elections to elections. Even the brilliant political magician Bibi Netanyahu has failed. OK, one of the reasons is that his tricks have worn thin, and not too many party leaders are willing to trust him anymore. I can't keep up with all the elections in the past couple of years, so I checked on the internet.

Wikipedia 


Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, whose sum total of Knesset Members is less than that of the Likud, managed to gather other political parties across the Israeli political spectrum and form a coalition. Gd willing it'll be voted in next week. 

I've shocked many friends, real life friends and facebook acquaintances/followers with my enthusiastic support of this proposed unity government. 

On one hand I really am a political extremist, but I'm also an activist and pragmatist. I've been following Israeli politics for just over half a century. I know perfectly well that only the coalition can really get anything done. 

If you just want to criticize and demand from the outside, that's one thing, but if you really want to improve life in Israel you have to work within the system. During the past few years, when we've been in and out of election mode, the sitting, interim or whatever the title is Prime Minister has had a lot of power. You can't vote him out of office, because he's already out of office, and all the time that there isn't a new coalition, the old one is in charge.

When this whole mess started, I was not one of those calling for Bibi's ouster. In many ways he had been doing a great job. I think the "corruption cases" against him are trumped up political shenanigans. But Bibi's treatment of Naftali Bennett and his crazy over-stuffed failed coalition with Gantz and his public interference in other political parties has shown a very dangerous side of Binyamin Bibi Netanyahu. He's also damaging the Likud party by not giving a chance to the younger generation. 

If Bibi had retired at seventy 70, like most government workers are forced to do, he would have left with his reputation glowing and untarnished. But in the past year and a half, even many of his supporters feel it's time for him to retire from the job. 

Actually I can't promise that the new Bennett-Lapid-Saar government will succeed or last terribly long. It may do very well, and then we'll see the chareidi parties trying to finagle their way in to preserve their institutions, the way the old NRP National Religious Party used to. 

I like the fact that Right-Left, Religious-Secular, Jew-Arab are all talking and looking for ways to make the State of Israel a better country for all of us. Gd willing these youngsters will teach us old fogies how to work and live together.

Monday, July 6, 2020

Bibi-Gantz Coalition, Political Trick?

When will Israel have new elections?

Odd couple for sure. There's no humor in the present Israeli coalition of Bibi-Gantz, Likud and Blue and White plus the chareidim and a few others. Gantz's political career was founded on and focused on declaring Bibi Binyamin Netanyahu unfit for office and replacing him. But then, after three failed attempts to legally unseat him as Prime Minister, Gantz folded and accepted a deal with Bibi. Bibi trapped him with a newly invented title "Alternate" Prime Minister with all the expensive trappings of the office without any authority or responsibilities. When Gantz and his cronies offer opinions aka "alternative" policies they're accused of "interfering."

In the meantime, polls are showing Gantz and his remaining Blue and White Party dropping, while his former political partner, Yair Lapid, is now holding second place, aka head of opposition.

Politics is a complicated profession. Each country has its very own system, requiring wannabes to learn a complicated lexicon of skills to really succeed. There's no competition between the skills and experience of the Likud MKs with Gantz and his cronies.

Could the downward spiral of Blue and White have been the aim of Binyamin Bibi Netanyahu's offer to Benny Gantz all along?

What do you think?

Friday, June 28, 2019

Knesset Elections 2019 Redo, Left Split by Ehud Barak

I guess I shouldn't be surprised. Ehud Barak is throwing his hat into the ring yet again. It's a generation since he had served the country, horrendously poorly, and many Israelis don't remember. Of course I remember. As you know, I haven't supported the Likud since before it, led by then Prime Minister Menachem Begin, gave the Sinai to Egypt and had Jewish communities destroyed and uprooted Israeli citizens.

I'm glad that the television newswriters/casters kept identifying Ehud Barak as seventy-eight 78, even though he has quite a few months until his February birthday. That makes Bibi Netanyahu look young. He'll only be turning 70 in October. Bibi's younger than US President Trump and the two Democratic frontrunners, Biden and Sanders.

In terms of basic policy, "anyone but Bibi," there isn't much difference between Barak's nameless party and the Gantz-Lapid-Bogi etc ad nauseum Blue & White. The biggest difference is that with the exception of  Lapid, none of the Blue & White leaders have much political experience, while Barak had been Prime Minister, though a failed one, from 1999 to 2001.

Are you among those who can't remember Barak's very short term as Prime Minister of the State of Israel?

To be as concise as possible... Barak's funders, yes, he had backers (and no doubt has some rich ones now, too,) paid for an American "campaign expert." This expert insisted that he needed a catchy, attractive slogan. Their polling info was that many Israelis didn't like the fact that the IDF had been fighting in Lebanon, because soldiers had been killed, etc. So Barak promised that if he was elected Prime Minister, Israel would leave Lebanon.

When the Americans left, OK pulled out of Vietnam, there was dangerous bedlam. But remember that Vietnam is thousands and thousands of miles away from the United States, so there was no direct danger to the United States of America. Israel and Lebanon share a border, and it isn't the Pacific Ocean. After Barak was elected Prime Minister, Israel had to flee Lebanon and ended up leaving valuable security information and equipment. His opponents called him "Barach," which sounds similar to Barak, but it means "fled." Israel's security plummeted, but that wasn't Barak's only problem. His coalition was shaky, because he had to include the Shas Party, which is Chareidi-Sephardi.  They were at loggerheads with Barak's Leftist followers. The Israeli political system requires a working coalition of a minimum of sixty-one 61 Knesset Members. A Prime Minister must be able to control his MKs. Barak couldn't.



Since Barak, Blue & White and Israel's Labor Party are after the same voters, you can guess. I'm curious about what's next....

Wednesday, June 5, 2019

If Gantz Had Been Able to Form Coalition, He Would Have

I know I said that as was taking a break from politics, but...

Many Israelis, media etcetera are saying that Prime Minister Binyamin Bibi Netanyahu should have officially gone to the President to declare that he couldn't form a coalition, so that Blue & White's Gantz-Lapid party could try. But the truth is that Gantz and his crew could have been negotiating all along with other political parties. They didn't need an official "green light."

The scenario could have been that Gantz had enough MKs lined up to give him a coalition, and then during the vote to disband the Knesset, Bibi and the Likud would have lost the. There wouldn't be new elections, because a majority of MKs would have announced that they wanted to join a coalition with Gantz-Lapid/Bogie/Ashkenazi.

That didn't happen.

One big reason is that forming government coalition is much harder than even electing over thirty MKs. You have to be a strong, wily politician. Lapid is the most experienced politician in the Blue & White Party, but he can't hold a candle to Bibi, Tzachi and the other Likud leaders.

I hope that Avigdor Lieberman fails to reach the minimum to be in the next Knesset. He's not a team player. I don't trust him. The new patchwork quilt NRP is a mess, too.

I'd really like to know what you think, thanks.


Maybe I should go back to hybernating. 

Monday, May 27, 2019

Will Bibi Pull The Rabbit Out of The Hat?


Tonight Prime Minister Binyamin Bibi Netanyahu made a short speech, and he didn't stay for questions. He didn't even turn his head in the direction of those shouting questions. He said there is still time to prevent new elections if Avigdor Lieberman would be willing to join the coalition.

Lieberman seems to want some of the Blue & White votes, so he's going rabidly against Netanyahu. Leberman is betting that he'll do better in new elections.

If we really are going to suffer through another round of elections, no doubt they'll be even nastier more childish than the previous ones. There was one basic issue in those, pro-Bibi or anti-Bibi. The antis, especially the Gantz-Lapid-Bogie-Ashkenazi Blue & White insisted that they could do a better job at running the country, because... they're not Bibi. They never really got down to basics on how they'd make the State of Israel better, safer etc. They did not appear competent. They didn't have very detailed or well thought out policies or plans. They just didn't want Bibi. And the parties to the Left of them, like Labor, wanted their votes, so they campaigned that Blue & White was Right. Likud campaigned that Blue & White was Left. While Blue & White just kept hammering it in that they're not Bibi.

I shudder to think of what the next election campaign will sound like.

I have a rather revolutionary idea. The top four of each party elected to Knesset must resign, leave politics and let the lower numbers get in and take over. Maybe they can form a good working coalition for the good of the country, instead of just increasing hatred.

Sunday, June 3, 2018

Not A Fluke, LIkud/Bibi Support Stable

Contrary to media predictions, and the dreams of the Left, local and international, polls are showing that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's Likud party support hasn't dropped.
Maariv Poll: Likud 34, Yesh Atid 17, Joint List 12, Zionist Union 11

34 [30] Likud
17 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [24] Zionist Union
09 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [10] Kulanu
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Meretz
05 [07] Shas
05 [01] Orly Levy
00 [–-] Yachad, Yaalon, Zehut (as other) under threshold
69 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
51 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Yair Lapid's party is also polling very well, but the Labor Party, now called Zionist Union, is losing support, as is Kulanu.

Of course, things change once there are real elections, but we see a trend here if you look at the last two lines, which give possible coalition totals.

Also, this time, Netanyahu has held strong to his coalition, unlike the past few governments which didn't last very long. I can't remeber the last time a government/Knesset served a full term. Of course, one never knows what will be on tomorrow's news...

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Lapid's Tirades vs Chareidim and Army Wrong

This post is also on Israel Blogger as Chareidim to IDF with Honey not Lapid’s Tirades.

The truth is that I do think that the chareidim and the extreme Leftists who have been finding lots of loopholes to to get out of IDF service should serve. But there's one thing for sure. Yair Lapid's hateful and spiteful tirades against the exemption for chareidim will only make them oppose army service more. And all those religious people who support him, like Dov Lipman, should take Lapid's rabid anti-chareidi statements more seriously. Lapid doesn't have the personality characteristics to make him a national leader of the State of Israel.

Chareidim aren't a small marginal part of the Israeli demographics, the way they were seventy years ago as the modern State of Israel came into being. A very large portion of the First Graders each year are in various chareidi educational frameworks, and the percentage shows no real sign of shrinking. One of the big problems in chareidi society and families is the vast difference in educational curriculum between the girls and the boys. The girls generally study enough English and math to pass the Bagrut, Matriculation exams, study a profession and support their families. The boys have an extremely limited curriculum, which sometimes even ignores Hebrew as a spoken language, besides not teaching English and Mathematics. This not only limits professional opportunities, but it can make for difficult homelife.

Lapid's We're done being suckers statements only makes army service into an unbearable burden for fools/"suckers," rather than an opportunity to serve one's country, mature, make lifelong friends and even learn a profession or complete a Bagrut Diploma.

I have no doubt that by being amenable, understanding and sympathetic, plus offering an extensive "end of service educational package," more and more chareidim will decide that it is to their advantage to serve in the IDF. To make it more suitable, the teachers should be male, preferably religious/chareidi, and some will be graduates of the program who undergo teacher training. The added bonus will be a new cadre of chareidi men qualified to teach academic subjects. That's the educational revolution that must happen here in Israel, the sooner the better.


Sunday, December 4, 2016

Turmoil in Bibi's Coalition

credit
Bezalel Smotrich: Flash 90









The Israeli political scene is getting pretty tense, especially as the Amona destruction deadline approaches, and the competing legislative moves in passing the Regulation Law* gallop ahead.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu kicked out MK Bezalel Smotrich (Jewish Home) from Saturday night’s discussion in his office about the Regulation Law, Channel 2 News reported.
According to the report, Netanyahu was angry at comments Smotrich made during an interview with the Haaretz newspaper, in which the Jewish Home MK hinted that the Prime Minister is a “coward”.
"You said that I am not right-wing and can't be relied on, so don't come in here," Netanyahu reportedly said to Smotrich. "I do not want to sit with you." (Arutz 7)
In recent Knesset Elections, those of us who support full Jewish Rights and Sovereignty in the Land of Israel, Judea, Samaria, Jordan Valley and Golan debate the wisdom of voting for Likud or Jewish Home, formerly National Religious Party.

Those who promote voting Likud claim that it is the only way to keep the Left out of power and consider the Likud to be on the Right and protecting Jewish Rights etc.

And those who promote Bayit Yehudi/Jewish Home say that only if the Likud leader, who has been Binyamin Bibi Netanyahu for about twenty years, is dependent on a large Bayit Yehudi/Jewish Home as a necessary part of his coalition will there be pro-settlement policies.

As we watch Netanyahu buckle under the power of the Israeli Left which controls the media and the Supreme Court, it seems pretty obvious that those who predicted Leftist policies from the Likud were correct. Bibi spends too much time straddling the Center instead of building for Jews in the Land of Israel. He acts terrified of America and the Leftist Israeli judicial. Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman is no better, and the Jewish Home keeps getting threatened by coalition leaders. Many of its supporters would prefer seeing Bennett and his MKs resign from the coalition hoping that new elections would be called.  The true gamblers are hoping that within the hours before it would take effect, Bibi would make a serious deal and policy changes to keep them in. The last thing Netanyahu wants right now is new elections. The Likud is not doing well in the polls, especially since Yair Lapid has been coming out with relatively Right wing statements.

What do you think? Please comment, thanks.

*"The Regulation Law is logical, and it's what the Torah wants, it's logic and ethics," Ben-Gvir said, adding this is the right time to insist on the Regulation Law, since "if it doesn't pass, more than 2,500 homes in Judea and Samaria will collapse like dominoes, and the government will be responsible for it."
Itamar Ben-Gvir, Arutz 7



Thursday, May 7, 2015

Bibi's Newest Government-- Can it Last?

I guess that the whole world is asking that question, and here in Israel, that'll be the theme of many newscasts and editorials until the government implodes. Israel doesn't have a betting country like England where lots of money was made and lost betting on the sex of Will and Kate's second child and the names of that child. Once Princess Charlotte Elizabeth Diana's name was revealed the big bets were on today's British Elections.

Binyamin Netanyahu
Miriam Alster/Flash 90

I wonder if those betting places are also taking bets on how long Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's coalition will last. All I can say is that I wouldn't buy tickets to travel abroad too far in advance, or I may miss voting, since we don't have absentee voting here in Israel. Two of my recent trips trips were timed to allow me to vote. Two and a half years ago I left just after voting, and this past visit I arrived home the day before elections.

Ironically, the last/final coalition agreement signed was with Bayit Yehudi's (Jewish Home) Naftali Bennett, who in both his Knesset campaigns stressed his aim to be part of Netanyahu's government. It seems that is the way Netanyahu works. He first makes the most difficult of the potential partners sign. And lastly he signs with his most natural allies. Finally he divides whatever is left with his own Likud Party. In his previous coalition he started by pulling a shocker and signing up Likud-traitor Tsipi Livni as Justice Minister. That brought in her personal loyalists, but she ended up being the one to destroy his government from within.

This time, Bibi, again went for a former Likudnik with high ambitions, Moshe Kahlon, first and created an offer Kahlon couldn't resist. I wonder if Kahlon will pull a Livni... IMHO, the two parties that Netanyahu can rely on for loyalty are the chareidim and Bennett's. Chareidim won't sit with Yair Lapid, and the feeling is mutual. Last time he allowed Bennett to force him into accepting Lapid and persecuting the chareidim. That was a dual mistake for both Bibi and Bennett. Lapid worked in tandem with Livni, learning how to get away with disloyalty, until Bibi finally disbanded the coalition and declared new elections.

Another time bomb in this coalition is Aryeh Deri's Shas, which already has a track-record of disloyalty. Ex-con Deri was davka given Finance, which I blogged about before. It really turns my stomach.

Here's how it stands now:
  • Jewish Home: Chairman Naftali Bennett will be appointed Education Minister, while MKs Uri Ariel and Ayelet Shaked will be named Agricultural Minister and Justice Minister, respectively. Ariel will also control the Settlement Division and hold responsibility for implementing a program regulating Bedouins in the Negev. In addition, the party will choose a candidate for deputy defense minister.
  • Kulanu: Party chairman Moshe Kahlon will serve as Finance Minister as well as chairman of the Housing Cabinet. MK Yoav Galant will beappointed Housing Minister, while a third person, apparently Kahlon associate Avi Gabbay, will be appointed Environment Minister. 
  • Shas: Chairman Aryeh Deri will serve as Economy Minister, Negev and Galilee Development Minister, and possibly also Religious Affairs Minister, although this post may be given to another member of the party. In addition, Deri will appoint MK Yitzhak Cohen to head the Planning Administration within the Finance Ministry. Under Shas' agreement with Likud, which is subject to certain changes, Cohen may end up taking the post of Deputy Finance Minister. 
  • United Torah Judaism: MK Yaakov Litzman will serve as Deputy Health Minister, while MK Moshe Gafni will chair the Knesset's Finance Committee. (Arutz 7)

There's still plenty left for the Likud to fight over, but many fear that Bibi will pull a fast one and accede to President Ruby Rivlin's pressure and establish a "unity government" which give the plums to Herzog and leave pretty much nothing of value to the Likud.

Nu, what do you think? Are you betting?

Friday, April 17, 2015

Israeli Elections, 2015, 5775, Dangerous Instability of "Unity" Government

I'm not at all surprised that it has been taking Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu a very long time to construct, negotiate his newest government coalition. His last one was an unstable disaster, and I am certain that he does not want to repeat such a scenario.

Vote counting in Israel, as complicated as it is, meaning you have to count all those little pieces of paper, record the numbers, add up each parties share and then calculate percentages, subtract the parties that didn't make the minimum and then recalculate to get the actual amount of Knesset seats per party.

Photo by Linda

That's child's play compared to what Bibi has been trying to do. He has to get enough like-minded party leaders to agree to work with him and compromise their ministerial dreams and promises to voters. And this year, we had the Passover holiday right in the middle of the limited time period Israeli law allocates to the possible Prime Minister. And during Passover, some party leaders won't do anything as mundane as negotiate for political gain.

And we must not forget that the previous, meaning outgoing government was a coalition nightmare, since two of the party leaders behaved unabashedly as opposition. They were Tsipi Livni and Yair Lapid. Netanyahu had no choice other than to fire them and call for new elections. OK, maybe he should have acted much, much sooner against Livni which would have given Lapid a lesson/warning, but he didn't.

So now, with the results of this more recent elections, he's pretty much left with a similar dilemma. At least he doesn't have Naftali Bennett insisting on bringing in Lapid as a "package," which meant he could not have the chareidi MKs.

But negotiations have not been going all that well for Netanyahu. And the pressure by President Ruby Rivlin to construct a monstrous "national unity government" has only been making things worse:
Israel needs a broad government as possible, given the current efforts to prevent the nuclearization of Iran, President Reuven Rivlin told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of Wednesday’s Holocaust Remembrance Day ceremony at Yad Vashem, a source close to Rivlin said on Thursday.
The source said Rivlin also had spoken about the need for a broad coalition with Zionist Union leader Isaac Herzog at an event last week in Ein Gedi. (Jerusalem Post)
The key slogan to Herzog's camp was "anyone but Bibi," so for him to join such a coalition without a very pricey "gift" would be problematic with his supporters. And the previous government fell apart due to conflicting aims of its supposed partners. IMHO a unity government would be a total and utter disaster. Isaac Herzog is no Menachem Begin who humbly joined the Labor Party's national unity government in 1967.

There very well may be more political stability and strength in a small, like-minded coalition, which is what some pundits say will be:
Meanwhile, Likud sources are preparing for the possibility that Netanyahu will present a 61-MK coalition that will comprise Likud, Kulanu, Habayit Hayehudi and the ultra-Orthodox parties. After the coalition is sworn in, Netanyahu could turn to Yisrael Beytenu or, alternatively, the Zionist Union. Complicating a potential deal with the Zionist Union (the Labor-Hatnuah joint list) is Labor leader Isaac Herzog's insistence on Tzipi Livni and her Hatnuah party being part of the government, something that Netanyahu adamantly opposes. (Israel Hayom)
Also take into account that Netanyahu may be faced with rebellion from his own Likud MKs if he makes a deal with the Leftist Herzog:
MKs David Amsalem, David Bitan, Jackie Levy, Miki Zohar and Abraham Naguise reacted to a Channel 1 report from Monday that Netanyahu held a secret meeting before Passover with Zionist Union leader Isaac Herzog to explore the possibility of a national unity government.
“We promised out voters a nationalist government,” Amsalem said. “We have to go with those we see eye to eye with ideologically, not with [Arab Zionist Union MK] Zouheir Bahloul.”
What is being described in the party as a “mini-rebellion” by parliamentarians who have not started work yet, came amid reports that Netanyahu was not succeeding in his attempt to woo Herzog. (Jerusalem Post)
As I've said before, I'm glad I'm not in Bibi's shoes.

Shabbat Shalom to All

Sunday, March 22, 2015

I Sure Don't Envy Bibi Netanyahu!



Even though the Israelis voters spoke pretty clearly and do prefer Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for another term of office, giving his Likud Party many more seats than they gave Herzog-Livni's, assembling a coalition won't be easy for him. Besides Naftali Bennett who has made it clear that he firmly supports Netanyahu and hasn't leaked any demands, all of the other party leaders are making it clear that they aren't in Bibi's pocket and expect a hefty payment, meaning important cabinet position for them and most of their MK's.

Just a couple of years ago, Netanyahu invited Avigdor Lieberman's party, Yisrael Beitenu to run with Likud on a joint list, which ended up to the benefit of Lieberman and detriment to Likud. This year, on its own, Yisrael Beitenu has lost strength, but it still has the power to make or break a coalition. Lieberman is playing hard to get, insisting that although he's leading one one of the smallest parties in Knesset, he still deserves a "senior position."

All during the campaign my feeling was that the Likud could not count on former Likudnik Kahlon at all in terms of joining the coalition. He'd be like the classic "woman scorned," even though he was the one who left the ship. And now the rumor is that he's going to play Bennett's old role dragging in Lapid as a "third and very unwanted wheel" as a condition for his joining a Likud government.
"According to Israeli television, Kahlon will demand that Netanyahu also invite his rival and erstwhile finance minister Yair Lapid into the government." (Jerusalem Post)
Yair Lapid's total lack of loyalty and discipline was one of the reasons Netanyahu had to declare new elections. And it was also Lapid's rabidly anti-Chareidi conditions that Bibi accepted which seriously damaged Likud's relationship with the Chareidi parties. And Netanyahu needs those MKs to form a coalition.

Nothing here is going to be easy. Voting and counting the votes are long over. The results are clear. The Israeli electorate does not want a Herzog-Livni government, not even just Herzog. It wants to give Binyamin Netanyahu another term of office, but the political leaders, MKs elected last week mostly have their own egos as priority, not the good of the country nor the will of the people.

As I've written before, I predict instability, and I wonder if Netanyahu will succeed in this seemingly impossible task. If he doesn't, then Herzog will get a chance to form a government coalition. And no matter who finally succeeds I doubt that the government will last very long. There is also a possible scenario that no coalition will be formed, and we'll be voting again this coming summer.

And don't forget that the media's rumor mill has been talking of President Ruby Rivlin pushing Netanyahu and Herzog to come up with a "National Unity Government," like the one that had Shimon Peres and Yitzchak Shamir trading places in the Prime Minister's office.

What do you think?

Monday, February 23, 2015

Israeli Politicians, Real Military Heroes or What?

Since yesterday late afternoon, Israeli media has been full of reports and pictures of Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat and security staff rescuing a victim of a terrorist stabbing just near his office.



Unlike American President Barack Hussein Obama, who spent his late adolescence in a haze of pot smoke, Bibi Netanyahu, Naftali Bennett and Nir Barkat were busy on the front-line and enemy territory in defense of the State of Israel.

Nir Barkat

Naftali Bennett

Bibi Netanyahu

In Israel, army service forms great lasting friendships. In units like the ones Netanyahu, Barkat and Bennett served, one counted on one's fellow soldiers in life-threatening situations. Actually, not only in a personal sense but for the security of the entire State of Israel.

Leftist leaders, Isaac (Bouji) Herzog and Yair Lapid had safe desk jobs, Intelligence and Journalism in the IDF.

Think about it. With whom would you like to trust your life and country?

Monday, February 9, 2015

Israeli Elections, 2015, 5775, Movement Within Blocs, Predictions/Pundit #3



Again, I'd like to say that I'm enjoying the ease of checking Israeli Election, 2015, 5775, polls on Jeremy's site, which is most helpful for getting a good view of voter opinion trends with minimal opinion.

As I see it there are a couple of steady (taking into account the accepted margin of error, which is generally 3.5-5%) blocs of Israeli voters debating between two parties.

One of the interesting and predictable voting blocs in the upcoming Israeli Elections consists of those who had voted for Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid, which was the "vote for a newbie" success story two years ago. This is a very predictable Israeli election phenomenon which we see in almost every Israeli Knesset Election results. There's almost always a new vaguely "Center" party which gets a surprisingly high amount of votes, even though it's list is generally full of people without any real political experience. Two years ago Lapid won twenty 20 seats. Now, most of the polls are showing that those twenty seats are being split between his party and the newbie Koolaid, oops Koolanu headed by the disgruntled former Likud MK and minister, Moshe Kahlon. It's not quite clear what he really stands for other than returning to power, making him a suitable recipient for the fickle voters who had formerly voted for Lapid, at least two years ago.

Another bloc of voters is those who are debating between Likud and Bayit Yehudi. In pretty much all of the polls, their grand total makes up just under forty 40 seats. They are the Center Right of the Israeli political spectrum. What makes it hard to decide for many is that they, the voters, are more to the Right, though they know that their politicians are more Center and even Left in the Likud. Even if the election results give that bloc a total of forty 40 Knesset seats, they still need another twenty plus 20+ to form a coalition government. And that's where things get difficult.

Who can be Bibi's coalition partners?

Even though Yair Lapid's first government experience ended badly, remember that he and super-fickle opportunists Tsipi Livni were booted out of the government forcing Bibi to announce new elections, he's acting more diplomatic/political this time, carefully hedging his bets and refusing to refuse sitting with anyone. He has tasted power and the comfort of a "Volvo" including its government paid driver and wants another chance, not voicing an opinion about who should be Prime Minister.

Kahlon is another power wannabe. He wouldn't have started this campaign if his aim wasn't to return to the cabinet.

None of the polls so far gives those four parties a comfortable sixty-plus 60+ total.

The next post, bli neder, in this series will discuss the religious/chareidi parties and Avigdor Lieberman, and how they can fit in the next Likud government.

Yes, I think it will be a Likud led government yet again. There are two main reasons for that.

  1. I don't think there are the potential numbers of predicted MKs willing to sit comfortably in a Herzog-Livni led Leftist government coalition. 
  2. Neither Herzog nor Livni is politically skilled and capable of orchestrating and controlling a government coalition. 
Of course, this entire post should be prefaced with IMHO, In my humble opinion....