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Wednesday, January 2, 2019

Israel Elections 2019, 5779 Latest Polls

Two interesting polls are out on Jeremy's Knesset Insider, both hot off the press, meaning that they include both the New Right of Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked and Labor running on its own, sans Tzipi Livni.

The shocker for many is that Bennett and Shaked are correct in their guess that they had brought most votes to the veteran NRP (National Religious Party,) now called Jewish Home. The polls show that without them, Jewish Home may not even get into the Knesset. The NRP is doing worse than Livni, which even has me shocked.  And I'm pretty sure that the polls were done before Caroline Glick publicly joined the New Right. She should bring votes from Likud and NRP.

I'm just going to copy/paste from Jeremy's Knesset Insider and let you take a good look. What do you think? Of, course, we still have a while to go before the actual elections, but so far it looks interesting. Honestly, I love this stuff.

PS Please remember that these are just polls; they aren't election results.

Kan Channel Poll: Likud 28, Israel Resilience 14, Yesh Atid 13, Joint List 12, HaYamin HeHadash 9


TNS conducted a poll of 543 people for the Kan Channel that was broadcast on Jan 2 2018.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
28 [30] Likud
14 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz)
13 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [18] Labor
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [07] Shas
06 [05] Meretz
06 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
00 [06] Livni Party (close to the threshold)
00 [05] Bayit Yehudi (far from the threshold)
00 [–-] Telem (Yaalon), Zehut (Feiglin), Yachad (Eli Yishai), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold
62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.
Additional Questions:
Who is more suited for Prime Minister?
40% Netanyahu, 30% Gantz, 30% Don’t know
Who is more suited for Prime Minister?
40% Netanyahu, 36% Don’t know, 24% Lapid


******

Channel 13 Poll: Likud 31, Israel Resilience 12, Joint List 12, Yesh Atid 10, Labor 8


Midgam conducted a poll for Channel 13 that was broadcast on Jan 2 2018.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
31 [30] Likud
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz)
10 [11] Yesh Atid
08 [18] Labor
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [10] Kulanu
05 [07] Shas
05 [06] Livni Party
05 [05] Meretz
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
00 [–] (1.8% of vote) Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–-] (1.3% of vote) Telem (Yaalon)
00 [–] (1% of vote) Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv)
00 [–] (0.4% of vote) Zehut (Feiglin)
00 [–] Green Leaf and Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold
63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.
Scenario Poll: Gantz + Livni
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
31 [30] Likud
15 [06] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Livni
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [11] Yesh Atid
08 [18] Labor
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [10] Kulanu
05 [07] Shas
05 [05] Meretz
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
00 [–] (1.8% of vote) Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–-] (1.3% of vote) Telem (Yaalon)
00 [–] (1% of vote) Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv)
00 [–] (0.4% of vote) Zehut (Feiglin)
00 [–] Green Leaf and Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold
63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.
*Note: Scenario poll total is 119 seats, not 120.
Additional Questions:
Who is more suited for Prime Minister?
37% Don’t know, 35% Netanyahu, 28% Gantz
Who is more suited for Prime Minister?
55% Don’t know, 38% Netanyahu, 17% Lapid

The Knesset can be seen in the background. Remember that Israeli Elections are for Knesset seats, not for Prime Minister.

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