Sunday, January 20, 2013

What if? My Post-Israeli Elections 2013 Scenario

In two days, the real polls will be open and the fake ones will take a break. I'm referring to Israel's January, 2013, Knesset Elections.

One thing you can say about the various choices of wannabe party lists for the Knesset this time is that most of the political parties have drafted or primaries-chosen lots of never been MK candidates.  I mean that many people running for the 120 Knesset seats are pretty new of politics and know little of the Knesset Member profession.  I have no doubt that they aren't fully familiar with the actual lack of power that an MK holds, especially when in the government coalition.  There's a "custom" known as "coalition discipline" which restricts free choice in votes and public stands of those in the ruling party or part of the coalition.  That affects ministers, vice (assistant) ministers and ordinary MKs, too.  Add that to the well-known "Yes, Minister" phenomena, and you wonder why they even bothered running for office.

Watch Yes Minister 1.1 - Open Government in Comedy | View More Free Videos Online at

Watching the show should be required in the training of anyone who wants to get into politics.

So, what scenario keeps spinning around in my mind?

In about half a year, a good few months after Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has constructed with some great difficulty his third coalition government, things begin to unravel. 

Bibi and Bennett, who had worked together even before the elections are having a lot of trouble as coalition partners because Bennett's Bayit Yehudi has a number of non-political newcomers as MKs and they have serious problems playing (Likud MK) Tzippi Hotovelli type powerless headline grabbers.  And even Hotovelli is finally bored with the role.

Yes, within the coalition, there's a large group of extremely dissatisfied Right wingers, fervently in favor of full Jewish Rights in all of the Land of Israel.  Moshe Feiglin, Likud,  Orit Strook, Bayit Yehudi-NRP, along with Hotovelli, Jeremy Gimpel and others are disgusted and frustrated with their lack of power and party support.  I can see them joining forces and debating on whether or not to leave their parties and the coalition to start a new party or join with Otzma LeYisrael, which got into the Knesset, even though the polls and pundits had predicted they wouldn't.

The coalition's idealist-rebels are jealous of the freedom to vote their ideology that the Otzma LeYisrael MKs have.  Strook, Feiglin, Gimpel, Hotovelli etc are tired of hearing their supporters saying:
"I'll never vote Likud/Bayit Yehudi-NRP ever again! 
It's a totally wasted vote!!!!"

Just imagine...


goyisherebbe said...

There will be a long road of putting pressure on Netanyahu from within before that happens. Feiglin is very disciplined. He refused to suck up to Bibi last time to get into the Knesset. He will not vote against the coalition, but he will express dissatisfaction in order to build on his status as internal opposition in the Likud. He will bide his time and get more votes in the fight for party leadership next time or support someone else against Bibi. Bennett, if he does a good job in the government, will be trying to pass the Likud and lead a future government. In such a case Bibi would never agree to serve under his former protege but would, like Barak and Orlev before him, choose to retire.

Shy Guy said...

That's right, Batya. Throw your vote away where it will be the most useless.

OK, I take that back. You're at least not voting for Rav Amnon Yitzchak.

Batya said...

goyish, yes, Bennett has plans

Dov Bar-Leib said...

I am more concerned about Gimpel. Sadly it is not what the PC crowd wants to destroy him for. He expressed his prayer that somehow in the near future that the Golden Dome would be "Blown up". So they will destroy him for that even if he never said that he will light the fuse. And by the way, may the Golden Dome disappear one day very soon even if it is G-d who lights the fuse or causes it to disintegrate somehow.

More concerning of course is his acceptance of Xtian missionaries to the point that he expressed a desire to one day help us all "Build Churches" here in Eretz Yisrael on tape before a church group in the US. G-d forbid. Let us at least ask Xtians to build their own churches without our assistance. I realize that statement was made over 1 1/2 years ago, but I must admit it shook me up. Thank G-d, he is only #14 on the BY list. Perhaps for damage control, he should step aside right now. wishful thinking

Dov Bar-Leib said...

I forgot to mention that is is of course bizarre that they will likely dismember Gimpel over the statement that he said which was true.

His false statement leaves the Left wing Powers at Be unfazed.

Batya said...

Dov, yes, I agree. Bennett doesn't really know the people on his list, nor do the NRP voters. I can't see Gimpel stepping back; he loves the stage.