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Sunday, April 29, 2012

The State of The State of Israel in Its Sixty-Fifth (65th) Year

All these political opinion polls are to check the status of the thoughts and plans of your "ordinary Israeli." Now considering that there is no such thing as an "ordinary Israeli," that's pretty hard.  I think that Avigdor Lieberman's understanding of the recent polls is that he had the potential to take over and achieve a greater victory than in the last elections.
If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)
Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
31 [27] Likud
13 [28] Kadima
15 [15] Yisrael Beiteinu
08 [11] Shas
15 [13] Labor
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah
04 [04] Nat'l Union
03 [03] Meretz
03 [03] Jewish Home]
11 [00] Lapid (Atid) Party
11 [11] Arab parties
Last time, he upped his votes at the last minute by campaigning to the Right while Bibi was burying himself in the Center.  I have no doubt that Bibi will dig even more deeply in the Center trying to decimate Kadima's Right while Yair Lapid goes for its Left.

Even though polls and election results have shown that the Israeli public is more Right and pro-Jewish rights in all of the Land of Israel, the coalition never conforms, follows those results

Lieberman is a wise and wily politician.  He's sniffing weakness in Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's hold on the government and impatience in the public.  That's why he's talking of leaving the coalition:
Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman said on Saturday that his party was no longer obligated to the coalition, as heads of opposition parties called for early elections.
“Our obligation to the coalition has ended, and we are also obligated to voters, so we are going to make decisions,” Liberman told Channel 2’s Meet the Press.

Lieberman read it right during the last campaign, and although I don't trust him and don't vote for him; the chances are he's correct in his analysis.  I always distinguish between professional competence as a skilled politician and ideology.  Too bad that nobody on the true Right, pro-Jewish rights in the Land of Israel, has a clue how to be a successful and effective politician.

Both Kadima and Labor have new leaders who are dying to run Knesset campaigns, and they want to do it before their greatest competitor, Yair Lapid gets his act together.  Those three political parties are after the same votes.  Hopefully, they'll be busy attacking each other to the point that their potential supporters will decide not to vote at all.

That's where we stand today as the State of Israel begins its sixty-fifth 65th year.  Politics of course is the barometer of how we're doing, and things are heating up.


Anonymous said...

labor would get 13?!? who would vote for them [and i assume barak would get nothing]?
i wouldnt be surprised if likud got more that 31.
i also think that a lot depends on what happens immediately before the elections. if there is another 'hadrat nashim' kerfufle, for example, lapid and lieberman will get more votes.

overall, the proportions seem accurate. most telling to me, there really is no opposition party. this makes bibi that much stronger.

Batya said...

a, you must remember that there are some very conservative Israelis who have always voted Labor and just can't think past the custom.
NU is the only opposition

Amihai said...

There is one thing which worry me a little.
avoda+meretz+kadima+atid=42 seats.
If you add the Likud (and probably the mafdal), there is a large majority, leaving the arab parties, the Ihud, Beitenou and the Haredim out in the opposition.
Or else, Beitenou instead of the Likud, maybe hadash and the mafdal, and you have anoter fundamentally anti-religious anti-right wing coalition.
It would be much surprising, but you can never know.

The thing is, in order to set up a new coalition based on this poll, Netanyahou would be to accept at the very least two of the other large parties : Mofaz, Lapid, Liberman or Yahimovitch.
And this would prove far more difficult than the current situation or than a left-antireligious coalition...

p.s: sorry, I posted this comment on the wrong post !

Batya said...

Amichai, that's the coalition Bibi had tried to make, but Tsippi Livni refused to join him, so he had to take Lieberman and NRP. The question is whether Mofaz and Lapid are willing partners.