Wednesday, February 11, 2009

When The Dust Settles...

... and all the votes are counted, calculated etc, the chances are that Likud and Kadima will have the same number of MK's.

Both parties claim victory and race to form rival coalitions

The formula is very complicated. Quite a number of parties didn't make the minimum meaning that there are a lot of "unclaimed" seats to divide up. Kadima is at a severe disadvantage, because it's "surplus vote agreement" was with one of the failing parties.

In addition, the very simplistic Right-Left division the media kept touting on TV is built on two shaky houses of cards. The Left is built on the Arab parties, and the Right is built on the Chareidi and Ichud Le'umi.

The media's other suggestion was that all the supposed "Center" whatever parties get together and even take turns. This has been done before. Basically, what they have in common is a desperate Power at any price policy. That could be the most stable and the most dangerous.

"Dangerous" in its willingness to do anything to be in power. The motto of Kadima is that "everyone has his price." The Likud may adopt it, and then Benny Begin will quit, saying that "Bibi didn't mature as much as I had thought, and I'm not as tolerant as I thought I was."

And yes, no doubt that Yisrael Beitenu's Avigdor Lieberman holds the key and will extract a very heavy price. NRP will try its best to make a deal and revert back to its previous "we can make a deal with anyone and everyone" identity. I'm sure that Orlev is very relieved that he no longer has the principled idealists on his back.

Stay tuned to the next episode of "Let's Make A Deal," brought to you by Israeli Elections and Democracy Israeli Style In Action.


Anonymous said...

It amazes me how the Left controlled media, both in Israel & outside, continually define Likud & Natanyahu as Right wing, hard-line, etc. If it was only so. In addition, the same messiah like atmosphere that prevails in the US regarding Obama prevails among many re Netanyahu. If Natanyahu & Livni overcame personal egos, I wouldn't be surprised if Likud strikes a deal w/ Livni and bypasses the Right. In reality, the difference between Kadima & the Likud leadership may only be a matter of only a few degrees.

Batya said...

Aaron K, exactly.
It was so pathetic last night watching the newscasters jumping up and down:
"Tsippi did it! Tsippi did it. A miracle!" They were also cheering and tearful for Obama.

Bibi would have really won if he was truly Right.

Hadassa DeYoung said...

I may be mistaken, but I thought that at least since the last election (possibly since previous elections) the votes for any party that didn't receive the minimum amount for entering the Knesset were simply disregarded, unlike in the previous system when the votes were divided (I think proportionally) among the parties that did enter the Knesset. This was a big issue in the last election because Marzel was running in his own party and some people erroneously thought that some of the votes for him would end up going to Arab parties if he didn't pass the minimum.
Do you think that NU and Jewish Home won more votes separately than they would have together? I do.
It's not so strange that Kadima is similar to the Likud, after all, Kadima spun off from the Likud.

Batya said...

The left over seat are divided according to the surplus votes of parties getting in.
First a seat is worth a certain amount of votes with a minimum of winning enough for 3 seats. In an election like yesterday's there could be ten left over seats. It's a crazy system and Tsippi fouled up by not making a deal with a viable party.