Sunday, February 1, 2009

A Vote For Likud Is A Vote For Kadima

Bibi Netanyahu has been very blunt, clear, upfront about his running as a "centrist" and his plans for a "centrist" coalition.

Not only are there many patriotic, Right wing Jews planning on voting for Likud, but there are also some good reliably Right wing candidates on the Likud list. I feel sorry for them. At the Jerusalem Conference, young Likud MK Gilad Erdan and Likud hopeful Tzippi Hotobeli were very impressively Right. But Erdan lost his cool when asked about his fellow Likud MK's voting for Disengagement.

Bibi has welcomed to the Likud Dan Meridor and Uzi Dayan, among others, way to the Left. Meridor and Dayan will get the plum posts, not Erdan and Hotobeli. And don't forget how Bibi managed to push down Moshe Feiglin, Moshe Muskal and other Right wing hopefuls far from the safe spots on the Likud list.

Last August at the Jewish Bloggers Conference, I hear Bibi say that he hopes to welcome lots of Kadima MK's into the Likud.

There is only one scenario in which Kadima and Labor won't join the Likud in the coalition, and that's if their members make such a hullabaloo, Tsippi and/or Barak have to bow down to the pressure. On today's political newscast there were already jokes about how they'd make excuses for why they have to join.

Rumours abound that Kadima hotshots are already negotiating their retrun to Likud, and Labor would like theirs back, too. They'll blame it all on Tsippi.

Bibi may not want Lieberman either.

Honestly, I just like to keep things simple. I'm voting Ichud Le'umi. I think it's important to have a very strong Right wing opposition. Remember that both Menachem Begin's Camp David gift of the Sinai to Egypt and Ariel Sharon's Disengagement, giving Gush Katif and Northern Shomron to the Arab terrorists, were during Likud Governments. The Left wouldn't dare do such things, because they have always been afraid of the Right.

We have to vote in a strong Right to be an extremely strong opposition. That will be the best for the future and security of The State of Israel, the Land of Israel and the People of Israel.


Jehoshaphat said...

It sure would be nice if things were so simple but they are NOT!

According to the polls Likud will get around 30 seats. If you look at the Likud list, you will see that amongst 31-40 are 8 good, right wing people who really belong in Ichud Leumi.

Likud WILL win the elections that is more or less a given. A vote for Likud is not, as you say, a vote for Kadima. It is a vote to force Ichud Leumi type Knesset members into the Likud itself where nobody, not even Bibi, can relegate them to the opposition.

In fact, being that Ichud Leumi is hovering around the 3 member threshold in the polls, a vote for Ichud Leumi is much more likely to help Kadima since it may be a right wing vote thrown in the garbage!

Do what I am going to do. Plug your nose and vote Likud!

Batya said...

In a sense the positions of the Likud MK's who don't follow the Bibi line is worse than being in the opposition. They'll get the most useless committee and be more restricted in all roles chosen by the party.

They would have a better chance of using their talents for good if they'd strengthen the Ichud Le'umi.

goyisherebbe said...

There are two points of view here which say two true things. One says that Likud is not a pure right-wing party and NU (Ichud Leumi) is, that Bibi is not an honest person and Ketzele is. The other position is that NU will be a small opposition party witb little influence because Bibi is bound and determined to make a coalition with either Kadima or Labor. Therefore only internal Likud opposition can have some effect. At this point I doubt that there will be any possibility either way to prevent a Likud (= Licouldn't) coalition with a center or left party unless they refuse to join. Of course it is pretty hard to imagine the great opportunist Kadima party choosing to sit in the opposition. As we get closer to the election, the position of Kadima in the polls may erode, especially in the light of Livni's statement in favor of civil marriage, an attempt to draw support away from the left (Labor, Meretz) and the Russians (Yisrael Beiteinu). This is likely to cause masorati center-right people who still support Kadima to come back to the Likud without drawing support away from the left.
Another trend is for Palestinian Arabs holding Israeli citizenship and living within the green line (I refuse to call them Israeli Arabs, a contradiction in terms) to abstain from voting. This will eliminate a lot of dead leftist traitor votes from the coalition accounting and make the value of the right's votes greater.
In a recent poll of people in the Mahane Yehuda marketplace, a hotbed of right-wing traditional Sefardi Jews, the Likud gets 35% while NU's position is negligible. This is because they view NU as a largely Orthodox, middle-class Ashkenazi party. True or not, NU has not yet succeeded in breaking out of its image as a sectoral party. These are people who will shout "-fill in the blank- king of Israel" for whoever the leader of the Likud is, whether Begin, Sharon or Bibi. If it should be at some point Feiglin or Effi Eitam, I believe they will still support the Likud.
It won't matter too much who you vote for between NU and Likud this time, but join the Likud and vote in future internal elections and polls, whatever they are. If the US puts pressure on Bibi and he looks bad, the next time there is a vote for the leadership he will pay. Feiglin worked his way up from 3% to 13 to 24% in the last race. This takes time. The geula is not coming by "achishena" (hastened) but "be-itah" (in its proper time). Here is the time to mention that none of the small right-wing parties have bothered to have primaries. If you want to have an influence you have to vote in a party which is to some degree going to listen. It is true that Bibi pulled a dirty trick on Feiglin, Ratzon and the others, but people who do that eventually get kicked back.
Anyway, do what you do and realize that Hashem is making it all happen His way. We have to do teshuva.

Batya said...

Good points goyish, except for the internal influence within Likud. At the Jerusalem Conference, MK Gilad Erdan lost his cool when asked about that. You could see his frustration trying to explain why his fellow MK's had no problem supporting/voting for Disengagement.

I can't see myself voting for Feiglin (his ideology, as a politician I still see him as a loser,) Begin, Erdan, Muskal etc, when I know that I'll be getting Bibi, Dayan, Meridor, Kadima-returnees etc.

The Machane Yehuda crowd know Benny Begin personally, since he was (and is?) a regular shopper there. I don't think Arieh's youngest daughter, who lives in Nachlaot, has made herself known, nor shopped with her father. It would have been good politics for him, but his handlers don't understand ordinary people. Moshe Muskal has a daughter there, too. They're neighbors of my son.