Thursday, December 15, 2005

Polls Poles Apart

I've been rather amused by the great faith the media and politicians show towards polls, which as we all know are frequently poles apart from reality. Everyday the news reports the latest results as if they were actual election results.

It's no secret that results can be manipulated according to how the question is worded. And in addition, the surveys, or polls, are based on a "representative sample," which is a small number, much smaller than the actual voters on election day. Besides that, there are people who purposely give answers which are very different from their real opinions. And of course, some people change their minds frequently until the actual vote.

Israel is presently in a very turbulent election time. Political allegiances are changing faster than hairdos and suit styles. If the politicians don't know which party they support, how are the voters supposed to make intelligent decisions? So how accurate can these polls be? My guess it that they're poles apart from the results we'll hear after the votes are counted on March 28.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Actually, mafdal is regularly pegged at three seats, if it even passes the threshold. That seems pretty accurate to me, if not optimistic.

So many people are disappointed with them. I wish Finkelstein would move over to Tekuma or Marzel. Unfortunately, she will be hurt by what Orlev, Yahalom, and Smoliansky have been doing during the past session.

I'm disappointed with the mafdal because it remains a second-rate party only trying to get in the coalition each time. It never aims to lead the nation, always content to just get in and get education ministry and infrastructure or shikun. At least I respect Feiglin for aiming higher.

Batya said...

I was never a Mafdal fan. It's outlived its purpose.