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Tuesday, January 2, 2018

Politics, Can We Trust The Polls?

LIkud Primaries, Electing the Leader of the Likud Party

Even though weather forecasts have become much more accurate in recent years, those of us who follow politics can reel off lists of elections that had been called totally wrong. There's no way that a few thousand people, even chosen by chance,  can accurately represent millions of voters. We've all seen how many mistakes there have been, especially in national elections, here in Israel and the United States.

The other day I saw Jeremy's headlines saying:
Maagar Mochot Poll: Yesh Atid 25, Likud 24, Bayit Yehudi 14, Zionist Union 12
And today they say:
Geocartography Poll: Likud 31, Yesh Atid 26, Zionist Union 13, Bayit Yehudi 12
How could there be such a difference? They were posted only one day apart. What do you think?

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Indeed, the two polls are really similar: Beit Yehudi 12-14, Yesh atid 24-26, etc. There is only one main obvious difference, which is the Likud, 24 to 30... The point is how you should read the polls: not as accurate predictions, but really like weather forecasts: "tomorrow will be coldier than today, and may be it could be raining in the late afternoon"... You never take it for 100%, rhis is not prophecy, but you can understand the big frame tht's going on. Clearly: total collapse of the so-called zionist union (Avoda), which gives Yair Lapid great hopes. And the Likud became more vulnerable to the Bayt Yehudi... That's the picture for now, January 2018. Does not mean that 2 months, not to say 1 year from now, it'll still be the same ! Yu never know what's going to happen, especially here in Eretz haKodesh!!

Batya Medad said...

True. There are many who debate between Likud and Bayit Yehudi plus we do not know who from the Right will run alone and waste votes. Bennett should go more Right with them.