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Thursday, October 4, 2012

Taking Bets-- Will There or Won't There Be Winter Elections in Israel?

The Israeli media is back at it, trying to double-guess the wily Bibi Netanyahu.  Our Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu out-tricked the media a few short months ago when he quickly eloped with Kadima's Shaul Mofaz which "cancelled" the expected/presumed early September elections.  Mofaz had his agenda and expected to snake up in the Netanyahu kitchen cabinet, but he failed and bailed out hoping to annul the marriage.

This is rather difficult for Americans to get used to, but Israeli Election dates are more "suggestions" than anything you can set your clock to.  Or think of it as "use by" dates on various food products.  You don't have to keep the cottage cheese until the "use by" date.  You may finish it earlier.  Israeli Governments are like that.  Especially in recent decades, they rarely, if ever, last the full term.  There's an inherent instability in the Israeli coalition system

Or think of Israeli governments as yeast dough.  If they last too long, they overflow and spoil.  Yes, again, like the yeast dough, timing isn't set in advance, there are other factors like the heat and the sugar and salt all combining with the yeast and flour.

Bibi tricked everyone just a few short months ago.  Looking back, I'm not surprised.  He's very sharp and I couldn't understand how he could agree to early September elections when the media had riled up the public against him with the faux social justice campaign going so strongly.  That's when he secretly courted Mofaz, eloped and pulled him into the government, effectively neutralizing the opposition.

Now the talk is of February elections, when everyone is busy at work and studies.  It's a much better time for the Likud than summer.  The media is now trying to figure out who is the intended victim of Ehud Barak.  He's obviously been conning someone.  I've never trusted him.  I think that he's really in cahoots with American Democrats, and I don't like nor feel comfortable with the fact that Netanyahu has given him so much power.  The Clinton-Barak relationship is too close to be kosher.
For the third consecutive election, U.S. officials are trying to help the Labor Party's candidate win the Israeli election because of their dissatisfaction with the policies of the incumbent. Taking a page out of George Bush's playbook, the Clinton Administration has once again done just about everything but announce that Bill hates Bibi. Anonymous officials tell reporters how bad their relationship is while the State Department makes pronouncements about Netanyahu violating promises he made to the President
During the 1999 elections, James Carville, Clinton's media/election advisor worked for Ehud Barak. Barak's Labor Party won, but it was bad news, a reign of terror, Arab terror attacks in Israel.  The Barak government didn't last long.  The truth is that it was easier for Carville to market Barak than it was for Barak to govern. Since then, Ehud Barak as become more a postscript to Israeli political history.  If Bibi hadn't brought him in, his career would be over.

The Ehud Olmert factor is just a media game.  Olmert and Arye Deri make great headlines, but I can't see them as returning to serious political power, except maybe behind the scenes.

Technically, February 2013 elections would be early, but in real terms, the Netanyahu Government will have lasted longer than recent ones.  My guess is that the next Israeli Elections will be some time before Passover.

Who's taking bets?


Alan said...

> Who's taking bets?

no shortage of idle speculation, for sure. Rivers of ink will get spilled on that.

As for "taking bets".... that requires someone with enough beitzim to "offer odds" by putting real money on the table. To have some "skin in the game", as they say on Wall Street.

Wait, who's that over there... is that Y.Medad?!? I see someone in the distance, with a wallet in one hand, and a crystal ball in the other....

As for me... "I don't have a dog in this fight".

Batya said...

Alan, I think you got my name wrong.
I do have an interest in what's happening here.