Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Last Laugh Re:Israeli Election Campaign and Polls

The fanatically extreme Left Israeli media has been bombarding the public with miserable, exaggerated doomsday reports of the Israeli economy and worse.  They claim that hundreds of thousands of children are living in extreme poverty and forced to work rather than study, even at very young ages.  They make the "Oliver" story look like heaven in comparison.

And they keep on repeating all sorts of horrors about the present Likud Government led by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.  The almost equally Leftist "justice" sic department is also doing its best to lower voter support of the Likud, which just a few short weeks ago had seemed to do a very clever thing by joining with Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beitenu Party.  At first that new election alliance seemed to be bringing them more voters, but then the Leftist brought out the heavy guns and started firing. 

Now the courts have been threatening indictment of Liberman after more than a decade of investigations, and he has resigned. 
Au faîte de sa carrière, menacé d'inculpation ?
Photo: Reuters
Yisrael Beytenu party leader no longer foreign minister; Financial crimes unit indictment for fraud to be filed in "coming days."
The indictment that was due to be filed against Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman – shortly after his parliamentary immunity was waived and his resignation as foreign minister went into effect – was delayed at the last minute.
Polls enthusiastically shown by the media have shown a rapid lack of support for the Likud, even though the Jerusalem Post had a readers poll that predicted Liberman's resignation wouldn't make a difference.
The last laugh seems to be that the parties benefiting the most are further to the Right than the Likud, NRP aka Bayit Yehudi and Otzmah L'Yisrael, led by MKs Dr. Arye Eldad and Dr. Michael Ben-Ari.
Here is an average of the polls presented as a pie chart. The blue parties represent the right wing, gray and black are the orthodox parties, purple represents the center, red represents the left and green the Arab and joint Arab-Jewish parties.

While these polls have considerable variations on the results for the individual parties (Tzipi Livni’s party ranges from 6.5 seats in one poll to 11 on another) a few common trends can be noticed:
- Avigdon Lieberman and Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Beitenu party is losing support to the hard right. Likud Bietenu is currently polling 37 seats (the two parties have 42 Knesset sears right now), and more importantly, the general trend is downward (Likud Beitenu had more than 38 seats in last week’s average, and closer to 40 a month ago). At the same time, Naftali Bennet’s National Religious Party now averages 12 seats, while the radical Otzma Le’Israel Party – which had a racist campaign ad disqualified by the central election committee last week – is coming very close to passing the minimum threshold. Combined, their average of 13 seats represent a rise of 6 seats from the number they have in the current Knesset. Netanyahu’s recent behavior and his willingness to confront the world on the issue of the settlements betray an understanding that his real challenge comes from the right.
Israel's Left and Center are slipping and will just drop more, because as I've written many times their supporters have few children which makes for fewer voters.  There's a pretty good chance that Otzmah L'Yisrael supporters are less likely to be polled and probably have a much larger support base.

Elections are just a few weeks away.  It still seems very easy to to predict that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will again put together the coatliton, but the question will be if he'll be able to make a deal with the Center-Left parties or will he have to depend on the Right and Religious parties to join his coalition.

Stay tuned...


Dov Bar-Leib said...

It appears again though that a vote for Ben Ari, Marzel, and Eldad might be a wasted vote. What is the minimum bar this time around? It seems that they are below the bar. I remember not so long ago that there was an election, and over 50,000 people wasted their vote on Marzel. He simply did not get the minimum. Those 50,000 this time would be better served to actually have their vote count by voting for Bayit Yehudi. For 50,000 people to waste their vote and end up with Zero seats should be declared a crime. Of course, it is one of those crimes that A.G. Weinstein, yemach shmo, would love.

Dov Bar-Leib said...

In short this election is no time to lodge a protest vote, and again have your vote mean absolutely nothing. The Attorney General Rasha will simply laugh in your face, and think "job well done". Settle for the party that has a 100% chance of reaching the minimum bar, and that party right now is Bayit Yehudi. Naftali Bennett has a plan to attract like minded secular voters who are sick and tired of having our lives and rules of engagement in war beholden to the rules of this dying world. There are a lot of non-Shomer Shabbat Israelis who are sick and tired of being the world's doormat, and G-d's laws of common decency provide an out from the rules of the nations. I happen to think that this idea of Bennett is brilliant because he can coalesce Torah values into mainstream Israeli thinking. I love Michael Ben Ari. I almost marched with him to Qalandia demanding someone's stolen sheep back who lives in Tel Tzion. But unless those numbers of his rise above four sure seats, voting for him is a waste, and the evil A.G. will laugh at us once again.

Batya said...

Dov, why "again?" Eldad isn't new to the Knesset, right?
Sorry to disagree, but I think it's very important to Likud and NRP that there be a Right opposition to make them look more moderate.

Dov Bar-Leib said...

I agree, but it is even more important to get the minimum number of votes to have seats in the Knesset. What is the threshold percentage?? Whatever it is, best to vote for Otzma only if they can guarantee to reach the threshold. It looks like right now, that they aren't at the threshold yet. Please let me know when they can guarantee at least three seats. I will not vote for them if they can only guarantee ZERO seats. This election is too critical to waste a vote. It will likely be our last election before Mashiach comes.

Batya said...

And if you and others keep hammering away that there's no chance they'll get in, you'll do the damage.

Dov Bar-Leib said...

So please keep us all informed if Otzma can guarantee for itself at least three seats. Then there be many of us who will vote for them who are holding out right now because we have been burnt before when Marzel ran alone. Thank you. G-d bless.

Dov Bar-Leib said...

3.4 million people voted in 2009. So with a threshold of 2%, Otzma needs at least 70,000 votes to get at least two seats. Less than that they get no seats. Tell me if it can be done. Thanks again.

goyisherebbe said...

Dov, as the suspicion of Bibi gets greater and greater, people are planning to vote harder and harder right. I do believe Otzma L'Yisrael will get in with either 3 or 4 seats. The polls are underrating them because they miss the young, disgruntled voters who are not likely to be included in polls or respond to them if asked. Count me in. Don't forget that Eldad and Ben-Ari are known quantities and highly regarded by rightist voters. Having a right-wing opposition in the Knesset keeps the Likud and Bayit Hayehudi honest. To have them introduce a no-confidence motion and the good old boys and girls of the Licouldn't and Bayit Hayehudi squirm is healthy. Bibi is going to be PM no matter what, so why not go for it? There is very little to lose.