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Friday, February 6, 2015

Israeli Elections 2015, 5775, Predictions #2

First of all, for those who like following the election polls, I suggest that you keep checking Jeremy's site.

The trend seems pretty clear in all but one of the polls; the Likud is slowly pulling ahead of the oxymoron party aka Zionist Movement led by Isaac Herzog and Tsipi Livni.

Midgam/Yediot Poll: Zionist Union 25, Likud 24, Bayit Yehudi 12, United Arab List 12, Yesh Atid 11

Recent newscasts and the usual Leftist Israeli media have been bemoaning the failing or "non-existent" according to them, actual campaign of the Zionist Union-Labor and Tsipi. According to them, after the "swinging" announcement, much mocked by many, of the union of the veteran Labor Party and Tsipi Livni, born and raised in a noble Revisionist family, there hasn't been much of a campaign.

One of the news shows I watched ended with the wish that maybe they, the news editors, were premature in their analysis. There was hope that future polls would show much better results for Labor-Livni.

Last night heralded the return of Latma, the totally fantastic satire by Caroline Glick, finally returned. This time on the "big screen" of Chanel 1 TV.

Here's the trailer (sorry all Hebrew):

It ended with a song about Tsipi and the hapless Herzog. She was the tough male figure of the pair, and he wore the wedding gown. She picked him up on her motorcycle, drove off very dangerously. They have an accident, and when the police come they point to each other as the guilty driver. And then before Herzog even realizes that he has been "had," she's off calling "Yair, Yair..." I agree with that as a suitable reaction of Tsipi's the minute it's clear that she has destroyed or seriously damaged Labor. And that's why I call her the "political nymphomaniac."

There's a long time trend in the Israeli political scene which can't be stopped, because it's totally due to numbers. I'm talking demographics. Religious, traditional and of course chareidi families are larger than the secular ones. Official statistics also show the size of Arab families shrinking. I see that in my Arab customers, Yafiz, Sha'ar Binyamin.

For these 2015, 5775 elections, add to that the so far weak campaign from the Left, based on gimme! and ignoring security. They will have to work much, much harder if they want to win. Numbers are against them.

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