"Do you think United States President Obama will be elected for a second term?"
There are only a couple of weeks left before that poll closes. I don't think that things have changed much since I first asked that question.
I'm a strong believer in "marketing." Almost anything can be sold if properly packaged. In all honesty, I think the election of Barack Hussein Obama is a good example of that. Of all the wannabes, Democrats and Republicans, who had been competing for the American Presidency four years ago, the track record, experience qualifications of Obama were most probably the weakest. That, davka, made it easiest to market him, because not having much experience also meant that he had made fewer mistakes and had a more paltry file of "past statements," etc. I've seen that time after time in our local Shiloh elections for town council where the least known and experienced candidate gets the most votes.
It's very simple:
The less you've tried to accomplish the fewer enemies you've made.
The present Republican front-runners have been in American politics a long time; therefore they've made a lot of enemies. The "Bush machine" seems to be hibernating, especially after their poor performance in the previous presidential race. They have trouble giving their all to candidates whose names aren't Bush.
Another problem is the process of choosing a candidate. This may seem rather shocking, but I think that the old way, when the party powers powwowed controlling state delegate votes in the big flashy summer party conventions had some advantages over today's drawn out state-by-state "beauty contest" primaries in which registered voters can chose whom they want as party candidate. No method is perfect; don't get me wrong.
In the olden days, one generally needed to be an experienced politician to get the nomination. The party powers generally put together a package of president and vice president that complemented each other. John F. Kennedy was the weaker of his package in terms of political power, but the young Camelot Kennedy's were easier to market than the politically wily Lyndon B. Johnson. After JFK's assassination, it was the much more politically experienced Johnson who got his political platform passed.
When party big wigs chose the candidates, there was more of a chance that they'd unite to promote them and campaign fully for them. Four years ago when Obama was vying for the nomination, the turning point in his favor was the decision of the Kennedy's to desert Hillary Clinton and support him. With the Kennedy machine behind Obama, Hillary didn't have a chance.
If the Republicans really want to defeat Obama next year, they (the political power machines) must already decide between them who would be the best candidate and choreograph the primaries to market the package.
I found this interview with Victor Davis Hanson informative and interesting to complement my post.